Final: Cardinals 26, Chargers 14: the upset
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers, Week 1. The Cardinals won 26 to 14 as a 74% underdog by the market; the game turned on J.Scott punt is BLOCKED by S.Fehoko, Center-J.Harris, recovered by LAC-A.Ingold at LAC 3.. Attendance 70,540. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
An upset: the market had the Cardinals at 26%, Elo at 25%, The System at 24%. Best forecaster on this game: The market (-29.8).
The swing: J.Scott punt is BLOCKED by S.Fehoko, Center-J.Harris, recovered by LAC-A.Ingold at LAC 3. in the fourth quarter at 12:28, which moved the home side's chances from 48% to 29%.
The Cardinals won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
Elo: Chargers -42 to 1481, Cardinals +42 to 1488. The quarterback adjustment going in was LAC +20, ARI -44.
| Against the forecasts | Elo: Cardinals 25%, -31.2 |
| Against the forecasts | The market: Cardinals 26%, -29.8 |
| Against the forecasts | The System: Cardinals 24%, -32.8 |
| How it happened | Largest lead: Cardinals by 12. Lead changes: 0. |
| How it happened | Cardinals's live win probability ranged from 18% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model). |
| How it happened | Q3 6:03: Ladd McConkey 8 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick) (ARI 16, LAC 14) |
| How it happened | Q4 11:44: Trey McBride 3 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Chad Ryland Kick) (ARI 23, LAC 14) |
| The box score | Total yards: ARI 393, LAC 268 |
| The box score | Yards per play: ARI 5.5, LAC 5.3 |
| The box score | Third downs: ARI 6-14, LAC 2-8 |
| The box score | Turnovers: ARI 0, LAC 2 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Jacoby Brissett (ARI): 27/37, 277 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, QBR 79.8 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Justin Herbert (LAC): 17/27, 209 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, QBR 50.7 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Rushing: Omarion Hampton (LAC), 12 CAR, 43 YDS, 1 TD |
Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.