Lions at Dolphins: 87°F heat at kickoff Sunday 1 PM ET. Cardinals at Seahawks: 15 mph wind at kickoff Sunday 4 PM ET. In wind of 15+ mph, favorites have won 62% against a 65% forecast over 27 seasons; The System shrinks toward 50. In heat above 75°F favorites underperform slightly; The System shrinks a tenth. Read more →
← Back to Week 1 picks · Back to Week 1 predictions
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers
Final, recorded Fri 12:37 AM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 1, 2026 · SoFi Stadium · Sunday, Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET · dome
Arizona Cardinals3–5 · Elo 1439 · Jacoby Brissett (−44 Elo)
26–14
Los Angeles Chargers
0–7 · Elo 1392 · Justin Herbert (+20 Elo) · Home
Final: ARI 26, LAC 14. Elo moved LAC 1523 → 1481 and ARI 1446 → 1488.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | LAC | ARI | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | LAC 75% | 75% | 25% | -31.2 | LAC 1523 vs ARI 1446, implied spread LAC −7.6 |
| Closing spread | LAC 74% | 74% | 26% | -29.8 | LAC -8.5 |
| The blend | LAC 76% | 76% | 24% | -32.8 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Tight agreement
Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 27 seasons (2,607 games) favorites here won 69.8% against a 67.6% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
Los Angeles Chargers over the Cardinals: Elo 75%, market 74%. Tight agreement: go above both. Herbert is worth 20 Elo; Brissett is costing 44 Elo.
Details
- Rest: LAC 7 days, ARI 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. LAC: Justin Herbert (+20 Elo). ARI: Jacoby Brissett (-44 Elo).
- Weather. Indoors (dome), so no weather adjustment.
The post-game report
Cardinals 26, Chargers 14: the upset. Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers, Week 1. The Cardinals won 26 to 14 as a 74% underdog by the market; the game turned on J.Scott punt is BLOCKED by S.Fehoko, Center-J.Harris, recovered by LAC-A.Ingold at LAC 3.. Attendance 70,540. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
An upset: the market had the Cardinals at 26%, Elo at 25%, The System at 24%. Best forecaster on this game: The market (-29.8).
- Elo: Cardinals 25%, -31.2
- The market: Cardinals 26%, -29.8
- The System: Cardinals 24%, -32.8
How it happened
The swing: J.Scott punt is BLOCKED by S.Fehoko, Center-J.Harris, recovered by LAC-A.Ingold at LAC 3. in the fourth quarter at 12:28, which moved the home side's chances from 48% to 29%.
- Largest lead: Cardinals by 12. Lead changes: 0.
- Cardinals's live win probability ranged from 18% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q3 6:03: Ladd McConkey 8 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick) (ARI 16, LAC 14)
- Q4 11:44: Trey McBride 3 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Chad Ryland Kick) (ARI 23, LAC 14)
- Q4 2:33: Chad Ryland 49 Yd Field Goal (ARI 26, LAC 14)
The box score
The Cardinals won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
- Total yards: ARI 393, LAC 268
- Yards per play: ARI 5.5, LAC 5.3
- Third downs: ARI 6-14, LAC 2-8
- Turnovers: ARI 0, LAC 2
- Penalties: ARI 8-111, LAC 7-64
- Possession: ARI 37:31, LAC 22:29
- Red zone: ARI 2-5, LAC 2-3
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Chargers -42 to 1481, Cardinals +42 to 1488. The quarterback adjustment going in was LAC +20, ARI -44.
- Jacoby Brissett (ARI): 27/37, 277 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, QBR 79.8
- Justin Herbert (LAC): 17/27, 209 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, QBR 50.7
- Rushing: Omarion Hampton (LAC), 12 CAR, 43 YDS, 1 TD
- Receiving: Ladd McConkey (LAC), 5 REC, 82 YDS, 1 TD
- Rushing: Tyler Allgeier (ARI), 17 CAR, 61 YDS
- Receiving: Trey McBride (ARI), 9 REC, 95 YDS, 1 TD
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
Tampa Bay Buccaneers rose to 1523; Atlanta Falcons fell to 1457. Read more →
Since 2026-10-13: Chicago Bears now 75% to make the playoffs; Atlanta Falcons 16%. From 3,000 simulated seasons. Read more →
Line movement
No market prices were recorded before this game.