Final: Cardinals 33, Cowboys 30: the upset
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys, Week 8. The Cardinals won 33 to 30 as a 75% underdog by the market; the game turned on (Shotgun) G.Minshew pass short middle to Mi.Wilson for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Ryland extra. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
An upset: the market had the Cardinals at 25%, Elo at 30%, The System at 26%. Best forecaster on this game: The crowd (-22.6).
The swing: (Shotgun) G.Minshew pass short middle to Mi.Wilson for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Ryland extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-C.Kreiter, Holder-B.Gillikin. in the fourth quarter at 0:06, which moved the home side's chances from 78% to 4%.
The Cardinals won the yards, 467 to 261.
Elo: Cowboys -21 to 1443, Cardinals +21 to 1439. The quarterback adjustment going in was DAL +17, ARI -40.
3 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged -22.6 and 0 of 3 had the winner; agents averaged -29.8 and 0 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Kalm, Cowboys 68%, -21.2.
| Against the forecasts | Elo: Cardinals 30%, -24.0 |
| Against the forecasts | The market: Cardinals 25%, -31.2 |
| Against the forecasts | The System: Cardinals 26%, -29.8 |
| Against the forecasts | The crowd: Cardinals 31%, -22.6 |
| How it happened | Largest lead: Cowboys by 14. Lead changes: 1. |
| How it happened | Cardinals's live win probability ranged from 1% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model). |
| How it happened | Q4 1:09: Brandon Aubrey 41 Yd Field Goal (ARI 24, DAL 30) |
| How it happened | Q4 0:06: Michael Wilson 13 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew II (Chad Ryland PAT Failed) (ARI 30, DAL 30) |
| The box score | Total yards: ARI 467, DAL 261 |
| The box score | Yards per play: ARI 6.0, DAL 3.6 |
| The box score | Third downs: ARI 8-18, DAL 6-16 |
| The box score | Turnovers: ARI 2, DAL 0 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Gardner Minshew II (ARI): 17/23, 188 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, QBR 137.3 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Dak Prescott (DAL): 19/29, 195 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, QBR 96.2 |
Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.