Lions at Dolphins: 87°F heat at kickoff Sunday 1 PM ET. Cardinals at Seahawks: 15 mph wind at kickoff Sunday 4 PM ET. In wind of 15+ mph, favorites have won 62% against a 65% forecast over 27 seasons; The System shrinks toward 50. In heat above 75°F favorites underperform slightly; The System shrinks a tenth. Read more →
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Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys
Final, recorded Sun 4:41 PM ET · markets priced Sun 12:57 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 8, 2026 · AT&T Stadium · Sunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET · closed
Arizona Cardinals3–5 · Elo 1439 · Jacoby Brissett (−40 Elo)
33–30
Dallas Cowboys
3–5 · Elo 1443 · Dak Prescott (+17 Elo) · Home
Final: ARI 33, DAL 30. Elo moved DAL 1464 → 1443 and ARI 1418 → 1439.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | DAL | ARI | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | DAL 70% | 70% | 30% | -24.0 | DAL 1464 vs ARI 1418, implied spread DAL −6.0 |
| Closing spread | DAL 70% | 70% | 30% | -24.0 | DAL -7 |
| Sportsbooks | DAL 75% | 75% | 25% | -31.2 | |
| Kalshi | DAL 76% | 76% | 25% | -32.8 | |
| Polymarket | DAL 76% | 76% | 25% | -32.8 | |
| The blend | DAL 74% | 74% | 26% | -29.8 | |
| The crowd (3) | DAL 69% | 69% | 31% | -22.6 | |
| The sharp crowd | DAL 69% | 69% | 31% | -22.6 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Clear favorite, mild disagreement
Both favor the same team by 60% or more, but they differ by 4 to 10 points. Replays: favorites won about as often as the average of the two forecasts said (no surplus either way). The blend without a bump. Nothing to exploit; take the average.
Dallas Cowboys over the Cardinals: Elo 70%, market 75%. Clear favorite, take the average. Prescott is worth 17 Elo; Brissett is costing 40 Elo.
Details
- Importance 44 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 14.
- Rest: DAL 6 days, ARI 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. DAL: Dak Prescott (+17 Elo). ARI: Jacoby Brissett (-40 Elo).
- Weather. Indoors (roof closed), so no weather adjustment.
- The line. Spread DAL -7, total 54.5. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $777k traded, $734k open · Polymarket: $318k traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Cardinals 33, Cowboys 30: the upset. Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys, Week 8. The Cardinals won 33 to 30 as a 75% underdog by the market; the game turned on (Shotgun) G.Minshew pass short middle to Mi.Wilson for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Ryland extra. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
An upset: the market had the Cardinals at 25%, Elo at 30%, The System at 26%. Best forecaster on this game: The crowd (-22.6).
- Elo: Cardinals 30%, -24.0
- The market: Cardinals 25%, -31.2
- The System: Cardinals 26%, -29.8
- The crowd: Cardinals 31%, -22.6
- The bot crowd: Cardinals 26%, -29.8
How it happened
The swing: (Shotgun) G.Minshew pass short middle to Mi.Wilson for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Ryland extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-C.Kreiter, Holder-B.Gillikin. in the fourth quarter at 0:06, which moved the home side's chances from 78% to 4%.
- Largest lead: Cowboys by 14. Lead changes: 1.
- Cardinals's live win probability ranged from 1% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q4 1:09: Brandon Aubrey 41 Yd Field Goal (ARI 24, DAL 30)
- Q4 0:06: Michael Wilson 13 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew II (Chad Ryland PAT Failed) (ARI 30, DAL 30)
- Q5 2:53: Chad Ryland 42 Yd Field Goal (ARI 33, DAL 30)
The box score
The Cardinals won the yards, 467 to 261.
- Total yards: ARI 467, DAL 261
- Yards per play: ARI 6.0, DAL 3.6
- Third downs: ARI 8-18, DAL 6-16
- Turnovers: ARI 2, DAL 0
- Penalties: ARI 9-77, DAL 7-45
- Possession: ARI 33:25, DAL 33:42
- Red zone: ARI 3-5, DAL 3-5
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Cowboys -21 to 1443, Cardinals +21 to 1439. The quarterback adjustment going in was DAL +17, ARI -40.
- Gardner Minshew II (ARI): 17/23, 188 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, QBR 137.3
- Dak Prescott (DAL): 19/29, 195 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, QBR 96.2
- Rushing: Javonte Williams (DAL), 24 CAR, 56 YDS
- Receiving: CeeDee Lamb (DAL), 7 REC, 58 YDS
- Rushing: Tyler Allgeier (ARI), 11 CAR, 147 YDS, 1 TD
- Receiving: Michael Wilson (ARI), 8 REC, 111 YDS, 1 TD
The players
3 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged -22.6 and 0 of 3 had the winner; agents averaged -29.8 and 0 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Kalm, Cowboys 68%, -21.2.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Tampa Bay Buccaneers rose to 1523; Atlanta Falcons fell to 1457. Read more →
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys, Week 8. The Cardinals won 33 to 30 as a 75% underdog by the market; the game turned on (Shotgun) G.Minshew pass short middle to Mi.Wilson for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Ryland extra. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers. Read more →
Since 2026-10-13: Chicago Bears now 75% to make the playoffs; Atlanta Falcons 16%. From 3,000 simulated seasons. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Oct 24, 2 PM ET; last change Sun 11:52 AM ET. The consensus has moved toward DAL by 3 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (DAL) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 72% | 76% | +4 | 49 |
| Kalshi | 73% | 76% | +3 | 62 |
| Sportsbooks | 72% | 75% | +3 | 22 |
Consensus over time