Final: Chiefs 31, Broncos 10
From the archive. This item is no longer current; the numbers below are as they stood when it was written.
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs, Week 1. The Chiefs won 31 to 10; the game turned on J.Ezeudu, J.Moore and K.Tonga reported in as eligible. K.Walker left end for 60 yards, TOU. Attendance 73,543. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
A close call on paper: the market had the Chiefs at 57%, Elo at 52%, The System at 56%. Best forecaster on this game: The market (+6.5).
The swing: J.Ezeudu, J.Moore and K.Tonga reported in as eligible. K.Walker left end for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Winchester, Holder-M.Araiza. in the third quarter at 12:43, which moved the home side's chances from 76% to 91%.
The Chiefs won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
Elo: Chiefs +30 to 1518, Broncos -30 to 1547. The quarterback adjustment going in was KC +51, DEN -1.
| Against the forecasts | Elo: Chiefs 52%, +2.0 |
| Against the forecasts | The market: Chiefs 57%, +6.5 |
| Against the forecasts | The System: Chiefs 56%, +5.6 |
| How it happened | Largest lead: Chiefs by 21. Lead changes: 0. |
| How it happened | Chiefs's live win probability ranged from 55% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model). |
| How it happened | Q3 7:34: Wil Lutz 31 Yd Field Goal (DEN 10, KC 21) |
| How it happened | Q3 3:17: Harrison Butker 28 Yd Field Goal (DEN 10, KC 24) |
| The box score | Total yards: DEN 176, KC 392 |
| The box score | Yards per play: DEN 3.7, KC 5.9 |
| The box score | Third downs: DEN 2-12, KC 9-17 |
| The box score | Turnovers: DEN 2, KC 1 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Bo Nix (DEN): 17/28, 131 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, QBR 13.9 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Patrick Mahomes (KC): 15/27, 184 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, QBR 52.6 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Rushing: Kenneth Walker III (KC), 23 CAR, 173 YDS, 1 TD |
Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.