Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
← Back to Week 1 picks · Back to Week 1 predictions
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
Final, recorded Fri 12:37 AM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 1, 2026 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Monday, Sep 14, 8:15 PM ET · outdoors
Denver Broncos6–2 · Elo 1617 · Bo Nix
10–31
Kansas City Chiefs
5–2 · Elo 1539 · Patrick Mahomes (+51 Elo) · Home
Final: DEN 10, KC 31. Elo moved KC 1488 → 1518 and DEN 1577 → 1547.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | KC | DEN | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | KC 52% | 52% | 48% | +2.0 | KC 1488 vs DEN 1577, implied spread KC −0.4 |
| Closing spread | KC 57% | 57% | 43% | +6.5 | KC -2.5 |
| The blend | KC 56% | 56% | 44% | +5.6 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Everything else
Moderate favorites where the models roughly agree. No edge found either way in the replays. The blend is as good as anything.
Kansas City Chiefs over the Broncos: Elo 52%, market 57%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Mahomes is worth 51 Elo.
Details
- Rest: KC 7 days, DEN 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. KC: Patrick Mahomes (+51 Elo). DEN: Bo Nix (-1 Elo).
- Weather. No forecast was recorded for this game.
The post-game report
Chiefs 31, Broncos 10. Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs, Week 1. The Chiefs won 31 to 10; the game turned on J.Ezeudu, J.Moore and K.Tonga reported in as eligible. K.Walker left end for 60 yards, TOU. Attendance 73,543. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
A close call on paper: the market had the Chiefs at 57%, Elo at 52%, The System at 56%. Best forecaster on this game: The market (+6.5).
- Elo: Chiefs 52%, +2.0
- The market: Chiefs 57%, +6.5
- The System: Chiefs 56%, +5.6
How it happened
The swing: J.Ezeudu, J.Moore and K.Tonga reported in as eligible. K.Walker left end for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Winchester, Holder-M.Araiza. in the third quarter at 12:43, which moved the home side's chances from 76% to 91%.
- Largest lead: Chiefs by 21. Lead changes: 0.
- Chiefs's live win probability ranged from 55% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q3 7:34: Wil Lutz 31 Yd Field Goal (DEN 10, KC 21)
- Q3 3:17: Harrison Butker 28 Yd Field Goal (DEN 10, KC 24)
- Q4 14:39: Kenneth Walker III 2 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick) (DEN 10, KC 31)
The box score
The Chiefs won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
- Total yards: DEN 176, KC 392
- Yards per play: DEN 3.7, KC 5.9
- Third downs: DEN 2-12, KC 9-17
- Turnovers: DEN 2, KC 1
- Penalties: DEN 7-52, KC 7-60
- Possession: DEN 26:18, KC 33:42
- Red zone: DEN 1-2, KC 3-5
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Chiefs +30 to 1518, Broncos -30 to 1547. The quarterback adjustment going in was KC +51, DEN -1.
- Bo Nix (DEN): 17/28, 131 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, QBR 13.9
- Patrick Mahomes (KC): 15/27, 184 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, QBR 52.6
- Rushing: Kenneth Walker III (KC), 23 CAR, 173 YDS, 1 TD
- Receiving: Travis Kelce (KC), 3 REC, 71 YDS
- Rushing: J.K. Dobbins (DEN), 8 CAR, 36 YDS
- Receiving: Evan Engram (DEN), 4 REC, 43 YDS, 1 TD
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
AFC East: Bills 5-1. AFC North: Browns 5-2. AFC South: Jaguars 4-2. AFC West: Chiefs 5-1. NFC East: Giants 4-2-1. NFC North: Vikings 6-0. NFC South: Panthers 3-3. NFC West: 49ers 6-1. Unbeaten: Vikings. Winless: Chargers. Read more →
Line movement
No market prices were recorded before this game.