Final: Eagles 24, Commanders 22
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles, Week 1. The Eagles won 24 to 22; the game turned on Timeout #1 by PHI at 01:01.. Attendance 69,879. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
The expected result: the market had the Eagles at 67%, Elo at 65%, The System at 69%. Best forecaster on this game: The System (+15.4).
The swing: Timeout #1 by PHI at 01:01. in the fourth quarter at 1:01, which moved the home side's chances from 83% to 65%.
The Eagles won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
Elo: Eagles +7 to 1539, Commanders -7 to 1467. The quarterback adjustment going in was PHI +19, WSH +17.
| Against the forecasts | Elo: Eagles 65%, +12.8 |
| Against the forecasts | The market: Eagles 67%, +14.1 |
| Against the forecasts | The System: Eagles 69%, +15.4 |
| How it happened | Largest lead: Eagles by 11. Lead changes: 1. |
| How it happened | Eagles's live win probability ranged from 54% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model). |
| How it happened | Q4 9:59: Stefon Diggs 10 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Drew Stevens Kick) (WSH 16, PHI 17) |
| How it happened | Q4 6:02: Dallas Goedert 43 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick) (WSH 16, PHI 24) |
| The box score | Total yards: WSH 295, PHI 318 |
| The box score | Yards per play: WSH 4.4, PHI 6.0 |
| The box score | Third downs: WSH 5-15, PHI 6-14 |
| The box score | Turnovers: WSH 0, PHI 0 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Jayden Daniels (WSH): 18/34, 164 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, QBR 66.3 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Jalen Hurts (PHI): 14/25, 203 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, QBR 71.2 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Rushing: Saquon Barkley (PHI), 15 CAR, 83 YDS |
Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.