Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
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Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
Final, recorded Fri 12:37 AM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 1, 2026 · Lincoln Financial Field · Sunday, Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET · outdoors
Washington Commanders2–4–1 · Elo 1443 · Jayden Daniels (+17 Elo)
22–24
Philadelphia Eagles
2–6 · Elo 1401 · Jalen Hurts (+19 Elo) · Home
Final: WSH 22, PHI 24. Elo moved PHI 1532 → 1539 and WSH 1474 → 1467.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | PHI | WSH | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | PHI 65% | 65% | 35% | +12.8 | PHI 1532 vs WSH 1474, implied spread PHI −4.3 |
| Closing spread | PHI 67% | 67% | 33% | +14.1 | PHI -6 |
| The blend | PHI 69% | 69% | 31% | +15.4 |
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The spot: Tight agreement
Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 27 seasons (2,607 games) favorites here won 69.8% against a 67.6% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
Philadelphia Eagles over the Commanders: Elo 65%, market 67%. Tight agreement: go above both. Hurts is worth 19 Elo; Daniels is worth 17 Elo.
Details
- Rest: PHI 7 days, WSH 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. PHI: Jalen Hurts (+19 Elo). WSH: Jayden Daniels (+17 Elo).
- Weather. No forecast was recorded for this game.
The post-game report
Eagles 24, Commanders 22. Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles, Week 1. The Eagles won 24 to 22; the game turned on Timeout #1 by PHI at 01:01.. Attendance 69,879. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
The expected result: the market had the Eagles at 67%, Elo at 65%, The System at 69%. Best forecaster on this game: The System (+15.4).
- Elo: Eagles 65%, +12.8
- The market: Eagles 67%, +14.1
- The System: Eagles 69%, +15.4
How it happened
The swing: Timeout #1 by PHI at 01:01. in the fourth quarter at 1:01, which moved the home side's chances from 83% to 65%.
- Largest lead: Eagles by 11. Lead changes: 1.
- Eagles's live win probability ranged from 54% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q4 9:59: Stefon Diggs 10 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Drew Stevens Kick) (WSH 16, PHI 17)
- Q4 6:02: Dallas Goedert 43 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick) (WSH 16, PHI 24)
- Q4 1:01: Antonio Williams 1 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) (WSH 22, PHI 24)
The box score
The Eagles won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
- Total yards: WSH 295, PHI 318
- Yards per play: WSH 4.4, PHI 6.0
- Third downs: WSH 5-15, PHI 6-14
- Turnovers: WSH 0, PHI 0
- Penalties: WSH 6-45, PHI 5-40
- Possession: WSH 33:20, PHI 26:40
- Red zone: WSH 3-3, PHI 2-3
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Eagles +7 to 1539, Commanders -7 to 1467. The quarterback adjustment going in was PHI +19, WSH +17.
- Jayden Daniels (WSH): 18/34, 164 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, QBR 66.3
- Jalen Hurts (PHI): 14/25, 203 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, QBR 71.2
- Rushing: Saquon Barkley (PHI), 15 CAR, 83 YDS
- Receiving: Dallas Goedert (PHI), 4 REC, 77 YDS, 2 TD
- Rushing: Jacory Croskey-Merritt (WSH), 16 CAR, 63 YDS, 1 TD
- Receiving: Antonio Williams (WSH), 4 REC, 64 YDS, 1 TD
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Since Friday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Lions at Dolphins, 4 points toward MIA, now 26% for the home side (Elo 41%); Raiders at 49ers, 3 points toward LV, now 80% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 1 more below. Read more →
Tampa Bay Buccaneers rose to 1523; Atlanta Falcons fell to 1457. Read more →
Line movement
No market prices were recorded before this game.