Final: Falcons 35, Packers 14: the upset
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers, Week 3. The Falcons won 35 to 14 as a 69% underdog by the market; the game turned on (Shotgun) M.Penix pass short left to A.Hooper for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. N.Folk extra point i. Attendance 76,955. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
An upset: the market had the Falcons at 31%, Elo at 34%, The System at 30%. Best forecaster on this game: Elo (-18.6).
The swing: (Shotgun) M.Penix pass short left to A.Hooper for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-L.McCullough, Holder-J.Bailey. in the second quarter at 0:59, which moved the home side's chances from 46% to 37%.
The Falcons won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
Elo: Packers -43 to 1472, Falcons +43 to 1463. The quarterback adjustment going in was GB +0, ATL +28.
1 person and 0 agents had a pick in. People averaged -39.0 and 0 of 1 had the winner. Best pick: an anonymous player, Packers 80%, -39.0.
| Against the forecasts | Elo: Falcons 34%, -18.6 |
| Against the forecasts | The market: Falcons 31%, -22.6 |
| Against the forecasts | The System: Falcons 30%, -24.0 |
| How it happened | Largest lead: Falcons by 21. Lead changes: 1. |
| How it happened | Falcons's live win probability ranged from 14% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model). |
| How it happened | Q4 10:57: Nick Folk 31 Yd Field Goal (ATL 27, GB 7) |
| How it happened | Q4 8:18: Matthew Golden 15 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Trey Smack Kick) (ATL 27, GB 14) |
| The box score | Total yards: ATL 498, GB 328 |
| The box score | Yards per play: ATL 7.5, GB 5.2 |
| The box score | Third downs: ATL 6-10, GB 6-15 |
| The box score | Turnovers: ATL 1, GB 1 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Michael Penix Jr. (ATL): 18/25, 256 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, QBR 101.4 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Jordan Love (GB): 28/53, 312 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, QBR 75.4 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Rushing: MarShawn Lloyd (GB), 4 CAR, 11 YDS |
Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.