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Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers
Final, recorded Thu 11:19 PM ET · markets priced Thu 8:01 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 3, 2026 · Lambeau Field · Thursday, Sep 24, 8:15 PM ET · outdoors · wind 4 mph, 62°F
Atlanta Falcons3–5 · Elo 1457 · Michael Penix Jr. (+28 Elo)
35–14
Green Bay Packers
5–3 · Elo 1533 · Jordan Love · Home
Final: ATL 35, GB 14. Elo moved GB 1515 → 1472 and ATL 1419 → 1463.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | GB | ATL | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | GB 66% | 66% | 34% | -18.6 | GB 1515 vs ATL 1419, implied spread GB −4.6 |
| Closing spread | GB 63% | 63% | 37% | -14.7 | GB -4.5 |
| Sportsbooks | GB 69% | 69% | 31% | -22.6 | |
| Kalshi | GB 69% | 69% | 31% | -22.6 | |
| Polymarket | GB 69% | 69% | 31% | -22.6 | |
| The blend | GB 70% | 70% | 30% | -24.0 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Tight agreement
Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 27 seasons (2,607 games) favorites here won 69.8% against a 67.6% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
Green Bay Packers over the Falcons: Elo 66%, market 69%. Tight agreement: go above both. Penix is worth 28 Elo.
Details
- Importance 43 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 22.
- Rest: GB 4 days, ATL 4 days.
- Quarterbacks. GB: Jordan Love (+0 Elo). ATL: Michael Penix Jr. (+28 Elo).
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 4 mph, 62°F. Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
- The line. Spread GB -4.5, total 43. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $3.7M traded, $3.2M open · Polymarket: $697k traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Falcons 35, Packers 14: the upset. Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers, Week 3. The Falcons won 35 to 14 as a 69% underdog by the market; the game turned on (Shotgun) M.Penix pass short left to A.Hooper for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. N.Folk extra point i. Attendance 76,955. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
An upset: the market had the Falcons at 31%, Elo at 34%, The System at 30%. Best forecaster on this game: Elo (-18.6).
- Elo: Falcons 34%, -18.6
- The market: Falcons 31%, -22.6
- The System: Falcons 30%, -24.0
How it happened
The swing: (Shotgun) M.Penix pass short left to A.Hooper for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-L.McCullough, Holder-J.Bailey. in the second quarter at 0:59, which moved the home side's chances from 46% to 37%.
- Largest lead: Falcons by 21. Lead changes: 1.
- Falcons's live win probability ranged from 14% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q4 10:57: Nick Folk 31 Yd Field Goal (ATL 27, GB 7)
- Q4 8:18: Matthew Golden 15 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Trey Smack Kick) (ATL 27, GB 14)
- Q4 3:33: Bijan Robinson 2 Yd Rush (Michael Penix Jr. Pass to Chris Blair for Two-Point Conversion) (ATL 35, GB 14)
The box score
The Falcons won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
- Total yards: ATL 498, GB 328
- Yards per play: ATL 7.5, GB 5.2
- Third downs: ATL 6-10, GB 6-15
- Turnovers: ATL 1, GB 1
- Penalties: ATL 6-83, GB 6-45
- Possession: ATL 37:05, GB 22:55
- Red zone: ATL 4-5, GB 2-4
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Packers -43 to 1472, Falcons +43 to 1463. The quarterback adjustment going in was GB +0, ATL +28.
- Michael Penix Jr. (ATL): 18/25, 256 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, QBR 101.4
- Jordan Love (GB): 28/53, 312 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, QBR 75.4
- Rushing: MarShawn Lloyd (GB), 4 CAR, 11 YDS
- Receiving: Matthew Golden (GB), 5 REC, 100 YDS, 1 TD
- Rushing: Bijan Robinson (ATL), 29 CAR, 194 YDS, 2 TD
- Receiving: Drake London (ATL), 9 REC, 194 YDS
The players
1 person and 0 agents had a pick in. People averaged -39.0 and 0 of 1 had the winner. Best pick: an anonymous player, Packers 80%, -39.0.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
Tampa Bay Buccaneers rose to 1523; Atlanta Falcons fell to 1457. Read more →
Since 2026-10-13: Chicago Bears now 75% to make the playoffs; Atlanta Falcons 16%. From 3,000 simulated seasons. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Fri, Sep 18, 12 AM ET; last change Thu 8:01 PM ET. The consensus has moved away from GB by 4 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (GB) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sportsbooks | 72% | 69% | -3 | 19 |
| Polymarket | 74% | 69% | -5 | 37 |
| Kalshi | 73% | 69% | -4 | 54 |
Consensus over time