Final: Giants 28, Cowboys 20
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants, Week 1. The Giants won 28 to 20; the game turned on (Shotgun) J.Dart pass short right to I.Likely for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. D.Zvada extra point. Attendance 83,286. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
A close call on paper: the market had the Giants at 41%, Elo at 51%, The System at 44%. Best forecaster on this game: Elo (+1.0).
The swing: (Shotgun) J.Dart pass short right to I.Likely for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. D.Zvada extra point is GOOD, Center-B.Mann, Holder-J.Stout. in the second quarter at 0:20, which moved the home side's chances from 55% to 66%.
The Giants won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
Elo: Giants +21 to 1474, Cowboys -21 to 1449. The quarterback adjustment going in was NYG -5, DAL +19.
| Against the forecasts | Elo: Giants 51%, +1.0 |
| Against the forecasts | The market: Giants 41%, -9.8 |
| Against the forecasts | The System: Giants 44%, -6.4 |
| How it happened | Largest lead: Giants by 14. Lead changes: 0. |
| How it happened | Giants's live win probability ranged from 39% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model). |
| How it happened | Q3 0:37: Javonte Williams 1 Yd Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick) (DAL 14, NYG 21) |
| How it happened | Q4 7:26: Devin Singletary 9 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Dominic Zvada Kick) (DAL 14, NYG 28) |
| The box score | Total yards: DAL 244, NYG 394 |
| The box score | Yards per play: DAL 4.7, NYG 5.8 |
| The box score | Third downs: DAL 8-11, NYG 9-11 |
| The box score | Turnovers: DAL 1, NYG 1 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Dak Prescott (DAL): 22/34, 175 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, QBR 83.5 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Jaxson Dart (NYG): 23/29, 230 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, QBR 78.6 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Rushing: Cam Skattebo (NYG), 18 CAR, 81 YDS, 1 TD |
Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.