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Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

Final, recorded Fri 12:37 AM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open

Week 1, 2026 · MetLife Stadium · Sunday, Sep 13, 8:20 PM ET · outdoors

Dallas Cowboys
3–5 · Elo 1443 · Dak Prescott (+19 Elo)
Elo: NYG 51%Spread: DAL 59%
20–28
New York Giants
4–2–1 · Elo 1504 · Jaxson Dart · Home
Final: DAL 20, NYG 28. Elo moved NYG 1453 → 1474 and DAL 1470 → 1449.

Your pick

No pick made — counts as 0 points.

What the forecasters say

ForecasterFavorsNYGDALPoints earnedNote
EloNYG 51%51%49%+1.0NYG 1453 vs DAL 1470, implied spread NYG −0.3
Closing spreadDAL 59%41%59%-9.8NYG +3
The blendDAL 56%44%56%-6.4

The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.

The spot: Everything else

Moderate favorites where the models roughly agree. No edge found either way in the replays. The blend is as good as anything.

Dallas Cowboys over the Giants: Elo 49%, market 59%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Prescott is worth 19 Elo.

Details

The post-game report

Giants 28, Cowboys 20. Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants, Week 1. The Giants won 28 to 20; the game turned on (Shotgun) J.Dart pass short right to I.Likely for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. D.Zvada extra point. Attendance 83,286. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.

Against the forecasts

A close call on paper: the market had the Giants at 41%, Elo at 51%, The System at 44%. Best forecaster on this game: Elo (+1.0).

  • Elo: Giants 51%, +1.0
  • The market: Giants 41%, -9.8
  • The System: Giants 44%, -6.4

How it happened

The swing: (Shotgun) J.Dart pass short right to I.Likely for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. D.Zvada extra point is GOOD, Center-B.Mann, Holder-J.Stout. in the second quarter at 0:20, which moved the home side's chances from 55% to 66%.

  • Largest lead: Giants by 14. Lead changes: 0.
  • Giants's live win probability ranged from 39% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
  • Q3 0:37: Javonte Williams 1 Yd Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick) (DAL 14, NYG 21)
  • Q4 7:26: Devin Singletary 9 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Dominic Zvada Kick) (DAL 14, NYG 28)
  • Q4 5:21: Javonte Williams 17 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey PAT Failed) (DAL 20, NYG 28)

The box score

The Giants won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.

  • Total yards: DAL 244, NYG 394
  • Yards per play: DAL 4.7, NYG 5.8
  • Third downs: DAL 8-11, NYG 9-11
  • Turnovers: DAL 1, NYG 1
  • Penalties: DAL 9-90, NYG 10-114
  • Possession: DAL 23:20, NYG 36:40
  • Red zone: DAL 3-3, NYG 4-4

Quarterbacks and Elo

Elo: Giants +21 to 1474, Cowboys -21 to 1449. The quarterback adjustment going in was NYG -5, DAL +19.

Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.

On the Wire

rest

Rest this week: 6 teams off a bye, 1 on short rest

Mon 10 PM ET

Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →

lines

Line moves for Week 9: money toward the Jaguars, Giants, Rams and 3 more

Mon 8 AM ET

Since Friday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Lions at Dolphins, 4 points toward MIA, now 26% for the home side (Elo 41%); Raiders at 49ers, 3 points toward LV, now 80% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 1 more below. Read more →

Line movement

No market prices were recorded before this game.

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