Final: Jaguars 34, Browns 10
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars, Week 1. The Jaguars won 34 to 10; the game turned on D.Watson pass short left intended for J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by F.Oluokun [D.Hamilton] at JAX. Attendance 41,156. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
The expected result: the market had the Jaguars at 74%, Elo at 67%, The System at 72%. Best forecaster on this game: The market (+18.2).
The swing: D.Watson pass short left intended for J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by F.Oluokun [D.Hamilton] at JAX 19. F.Oluokun to JAX 41 for 22 yards (E.Jenkins). in the first quarter at 12:17, which moved the home side's chances from 70% to 79%.
The Jaguars won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
Elo: Jaguars +20 to 1571, Browns -20 to 1423. The quarterback adjustment going in was JAX +3, CLE +38.
| Against the forecasts | Elo: Jaguars 67%, +14.1 |
| Against the forecasts | The market: Jaguars 74%, +18.2 |
| Against the forecasts | The System: Jaguars 72%, +17.2 |
| How it happened | Largest lead: Jaguars by 31. Lead changes: 0. |
| How it happened | Jaguars's live win probability ranged from 70% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model). |
| How it happened | Q3 8:31: Andre Szmyt 26 Yd Field Goal (CLE 3, JAX 31) |
| How it happened | Q3 1:48: Cam Little 40 Yd Field Goal (CLE 3, JAX 34) |
| The box score | Total yards: CLE 272, JAX 360 |
| The box score | Yards per play: CLE 5.6, JAX 6.4 |
| The box score | Third downs: CLE 1-8, JAX 5-10 |
| The box score | Turnovers: CLE 2, JAX 0 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Deshaun Watson (CLE): 16/22, 205 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, QBR 40 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Trevor Lawrence (JAX): 18/23, 245 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT, QBR 93.6 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Rushing: Bhayshul Tuten (JAX), 15 CAR, 66 YDS |
Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.