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Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars

Final, recorded Fri 12:37 AM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open

Week 1, 2026 · EverBank Stadium · Sunday, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · outdoors

Cleveland Browns
5–3 · Elo 1450 · Deshaun Watson (+38 Elo)
Elo: JAX 67%Spread: JAX 74%
10–34
Jacksonville Jaguars
5–2 · Elo 1605 · Trevor Lawrence · Home
Final: CLE 10, JAX 34. Elo moved JAX 1551 → 1571 and CLE 1444 → 1423.

Your pick

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What the forecasters say

ForecasterFavorsJAXCLEPoints earnedNote
EloJAX 67%67%33%+14.1JAX 1551 vs CLE 1444, implied spread JAX −4.8
Closing spreadJAX 74%74%26%+18.2JAX -8.5
The blendJAX 72%72%28%+17.2

The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.

The spot: Clear favorite, mild disagreement

Both favor the same team by 60% or more, but they differ by 4 to 10 points. Replays: favorites won about as often as the average of the two forecasts said (no surplus either way). The blend without a bump. Nothing to exploit; take the average.

Jacksonville Jaguars over the Browns: Elo 67%, market 74%. Clear favorite, take the average. Watson is worth 38 Elo.

Details

The post-game report

Jaguars 34, Browns 10. Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars, Week 1. The Jaguars won 34 to 10; the game turned on D.Watson pass short left intended for J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by F.Oluokun [D.Hamilton] at JAX. Attendance 41,156. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.

Against the forecasts

The expected result: the market had the Jaguars at 74%, Elo at 67%, The System at 72%. Best forecaster on this game: The market (+18.2).

  • Elo: Jaguars 67%, +14.1
  • The market: Jaguars 74%, +18.2
  • The System: Jaguars 72%, +17.2

How it happened

The swing: D.Watson pass short left intended for J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by F.Oluokun [D.Hamilton] at JAX 19. F.Oluokun to JAX 41 for 22 yards (E.Jenkins). in the first quarter at 12:17, which moved the home side's chances from 70% to 79%.

  • Largest lead: Jaguars by 31. Lead changes: 0.
  • Jaguars's live win probability ranged from 70% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
  • Q3 8:31: Andre Szmyt 26 Yd Field Goal (CLE 3, JAX 31)
  • Q3 1:48: Cam Little 40 Yd Field Goal (CLE 3, JAX 34)
  • Q4 1:52: Denzel Boston 46 Yd pass from Deshaun Watson (Andre Szmyt Kick). (CLE 10, JAX 34)

The box score

The Jaguars won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.

  • Total yards: CLE 272, JAX 360
  • Yards per play: CLE 5.6, JAX 6.4
  • Third downs: CLE 1-8, JAX 5-10
  • Turnovers: CLE 2, JAX 0
  • Penalties: CLE 11-75, JAX 4-25
  • Possession: CLE 26:09, JAX 33:51
  • Red zone: CLE 0-2, JAX 2-2

Quarterbacks and Elo

Elo: Jaguars +20 to 1571, Browns -20 to 1423. The quarterback adjustment going in was JAX +3, CLE +38.

Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.

On the Wire

rest

Rest this week: 6 teams off a bye, 1 on short rest

Mon 10 PM ET

Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →

lines

Line moves for Week 9: money toward the Jaguars, Giants, Rams and 3 more

Mon 8 AM ET

Since Friday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Lions at Dolphins, 4 points toward MIA, now 26% for the home side (Elo 41%); Raiders at 49ers, 3 points toward LV, now 80% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 1 more below. Read more →

Line movement

No market prices were recorded before this game.

All of Week 1JAX historyCLE history