Final: Jets 23, Titans 10
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans, Week 1. The Jets won 23 to 10; the game turned on (Shotgun) G.Smith pass deep right to A.Mitchell to TEN 11 for 40 yards (A.Hooker).. Attendance 64,336. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
A close call on paper: the market had the Jets at 46%, Elo at 47%, The System at 46%. Best forecaster on this game: Elo (-3.1).
The swing: (Shotgun) G.Smith pass deep right to A.Mitchell to TEN 11 for 40 yards (A.Hooker). in the third quarter at 11:14, which moved the home side's chances from 28% to 17%.
The Jets won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
Elo: Titans -28 to 1364, Jets +28 to 1444. The quarterback adjustment going in was TEN +21, NYJ +24.
| Against the forecasts | Elo: Jets 47%, -3.1 |
| Against the forecasts | The market: Jets 46%, -4.2 |
| Against the forecasts | The System: Jets 46%, -4.2 |
| How it happened | Largest lead: Jets by 20. Lead changes: 0. |
| How it happened | Jets's live win probability ranged from 43% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model). |
| How it happened | Q3 4:33: Jason Sanders 51 Yd Field Goal (NYJ 20, TEN 3) |
| How it happened | Q4 5:00: Jason Sanders 52 Yd Field Goal (NYJ 23, TEN 3) |
| The box score | Total yards: NYJ 367, TEN 195 |
| The box score | Yards per play: NYJ 5.8, TEN 4.0 |
| The box score | Third downs: NYJ 2-12, TEN 4-12 |
| The box score | Turnovers: NYJ 0, TEN 1 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Geno Smith (NYJ): 19/24, 215 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, QBR 81.8 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Cam Ward (TEN): 19/32, 140 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, QBR 41 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Rushing: Tony Pollard (TEN), 7 CAR, 35 YDS |
Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.