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New York Jets at Tennessee Titans
Final, recorded Fri 12:37 AM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 1, 2026 · Nissan Stadium · Sunday, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · outdoors
New York Jets
Your pick
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | TEN | NYJ | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | TEN 53% | 53% | 47% | -3.1 | TEN 1393 vs NYJ 1416, implied spread TEN −0.8 |
| Closing spread | TEN 54% | 54% | 46% | -4.2 | TEN -1.5 |
| The blend | TEN 54% | 54% | 46% | -4.2 |
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The spot: Coin flips
Every model has the game between 45% and 55%. Replays: these resolved 50/50, and confident picks on them cost the most points per game. Leave the slider near 50. A wrong 65% costs more than a right one earns.
Tennessee Titans over the Jets: Elo 53%, market 54%. Coin flip: stay near 50. Ward is worth 21 Elo; Smith is worth 24 Elo.
Details
- Rest: TEN 7 days, NYJ 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. TEN: Cam Ward (+21 Elo). NYJ: Geno Smith (+24 Elo).
- Weather. No forecast was recorded for this game.
The post-game report
Jets 23, Titans 10. New York Jets at Tennessee Titans, Week 1. The Jets won 23 to 10; the game turned on (Shotgun) G.Smith pass deep right to A.Mitchell to TEN 11 for 40 yards (A.Hooker).. Attendance 64,336. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
A close call on paper: the market had the Jets at 46%, Elo at 47%, The System at 46%. Best forecaster on this game: Elo (-3.1).
- Elo: Jets 47%, -3.1
- The market: Jets 46%, -4.2
- The System: Jets 46%, -4.2
How it happened
The swing: (Shotgun) G.Smith pass deep right to A.Mitchell to TEN 11 for 40 yards (A.Hooker). in the third quarter at 11:14, which moved the home side's chances from 28% to 17%.
- Largest lead: Jets by 20. Lead changes: 0.
- Jets's live win probability ranged from 43% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q3 4:33: Jason Sanders 51 Yd Field Goal (NYJ 20, TEN 3)
- Q4 5:00: Jason Sanders 52 Yd Field Goal (NYJ 23, TEN 3)
- Q4 2:42: Elic Ayomanor 11 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Joey Slye Kick) (NYJ 23, TEN 10)
The box score
The Jets won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
- Total yards: NYJ 367, TEN 195
- Yards per play: NYJ 5.8, TEN 4.0
- Third downs: NYJ 2-12, TEN 4-12
- Turnovers: NYJ 0, TEN 1
- Penalties: NYJ 8-48, TEN 4-25
- Possession: NYJ 38:46, TEN 21:14
- Red zone: NYJ 2-3, TEN 1-1
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Titans -28 to 1364, Jets +28 to 1444. The quarterback adjustment going in was TEN +21, NYJ +24.
- Geno Smith (NYJ): 19/24, 215 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, QBR 81.8
- Cam Ward (TEN): 19/32, 140 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, QBR 41
- Rushing: Tony Pollard (TEN), 7 CAR, 35 YDS
- Receiving: Wan'Dale Robinson (TEN), 5 REC, 38 YDS
- Rushing: Breece Hall (NYJ), 22 CAR, 102 YDS, 1 TD
- Receiving: Garrett Wilson (NYJ), 6 REC, 79 YDS
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
Line movement
No market prices were recorded before this game.