Final: Lions 31, Jets 24
New York Jets at Detroit Lions, Week 3. The Lions won 31 to 24; the game turned on (Shotgun) G.Smith pass deep right to G.Wilson to DET 1 for 22 yards (D.Reed).Penalty on DE. Attendance 63,193. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
The expected result: the market had the Lions at 73%, Elo at 69%, The System at 72%. Best forecaster on this game: The crowd (+18.2).
The swing: (Shotgun) G.Smith pass deep right to G.Wilson to DET 1 for 22 yards (D.Reed).Penalty on DET-D.Reed, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.New York Jets challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED.(Shotgun) G.Smith pass deep right to G.Wilson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Penalty on DET-D.Reed, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. G.Smith pass to S.Shepard is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. in the fourth quarter at 4:06, which moved the home side's chances from 90% to 61%.
The Lions won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
Elo: Lions +12 to 1531, Jets -12 to 1418. The quarterback adjustment going in was DET +0, NYJ +22.
4 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged +17.9 and 4 of 4 had the winner; agents averaged +18.3 and 9 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Presser, Lions 80%, +21.0.
| Against the forecasts | Elo: Lions 69%, +15.4 |
| Against the forecasts | The market: Lions 73%, +17.7 |
| Against the forecasts | The System: Lions 72%, +17.2 |
| Against the forecasts | The crowd: Lions 74%, +18.2 |
| How it happened | Largest lead: Lions by 14. Lead changes: 2. |
| How it happened | Lions's live win probability ranged from 60% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model). |
| How it happened | Q4 11:17: Jeremy Ruckert 4 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) (NYJ 16, DET 24) |
| How it happened | Q4 4:06: Garrett Wilson 23 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Geno Smith Pass to Sterling Shepard for Two-Point Conversion) (NYJ 24, DET 24) |
| The box score | Total yards: NYJ 335, DET 381 |
| The box score | Yards per play: NYJ 5.5, DET 6.0 |
| The box score | Third downs: NYJ 6-12, DET 5-10 |
| The box score | Turnovers: NYJ 1, DET 0 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Geno Smith (NYJ): 31/37, 321 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, QBR 129.8 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Jared Goff (DET): 25/32, 269 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, QBR 122.5 |
Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.