Lions at Dolphins: 87°F heat at kickoff Sunday 1 PM ET. Cardinals at Seahawks: 15 mph wind at kickoff Sunday 4 PM ET. In wind of 15+ mph, favorites have won 62% against a 65% forecast over 27 seasons; The System shrinks toward 50. In heat above 75°F favorites underperform slightly; The System shrinks a tenth. Read more →
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New York Jets at Detroit Lions
Final, recorded Sun 4:00 PM ET · markets priced Sun 12:40 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 3, 2026 · Ford Field · Sunday, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET · dome
New York Jets2–6 · Elo 1380 · Geno Smith (+22 Elo)
24–31
Detroit Lions
5–2 · Elo 1569 · Jared Goff · off a bye · Home
Final: NYJ 24, DET 31. Elo moved DET 1519 → 1531 and NYJ 1430 → 1418.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | DET | NYJ | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | DET 69% | 69% | 31% | +15.4 | DET 1519 vs NYJ 1430, implied spread DET −5.6 |
| Closing spread | DET 70% | 70% | 30% | +16.0 | DET -7 |
| Sportsbooks | DET 73% | 73% | 27% | +17.7 | |
| Kalshi | DET 74% | 74% | 27% | +18.2 | |
| Polymarket | DET 74% | 74% | 27% | +18.2 | |
| The blend | DET 72% | 72% | 28% | +17.2 | |
| The crowd (4) | DET 74% | 74% | 27% | +18.2 | |
| The sharp crowd | DET 73% | 73% | 27% | +17.7 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Clear favorite, mild disagreement
Both favor the same team by 60% or more, but they differ by 4 to 10 points. Replays: favorites won about as often as the average of the two forecasts said (no surplus either way). The blend without a bump. Nothing to exploit; take the average.
Detroit Lions over the Jets: Elo 69%, market 73%. Clear favorite, take the average. Smith is worth 22 Elo; DET off a bye.
Details
- Importance 37 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 24.
- Rest: DET 10 days, NYJ 7 days. DET off a bye (+25 Elo).
- Quarterbacks. DET: Jared Goff (0 Elo). NYJ: Geno Smith (+22 Elo).
- Weather. Indoors (dome), so no weather adjustment.
- The line. Spread DET -6.5, total 48.5. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $434k traded, $422k open · Polymarket: $458k traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Lions 31, Jets 24. New York Jets at Detroit Lions, Week 3. The Lions won 31 to 24; the game turned on (Shotgun) G.Smith pass deep right to G.Wilson to DET 1 for 22 yards (D.Reed).Penalty on DE. Attendance 63,193. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
The expected result: the market had the Lions at 73%, Elo at 69%, The System at 72%. Best forecaster on this game: The crowd (+18.2).
- Elo: Lions 69%, +15.4
- The market: Lions 73%, +17.7
- The System: Lions 72%, +17.2
- The crowd: Lions 74%, +18.2
- The bot crowd: Lions 74%, +18.2
How it happened
The swing: (Shotgun) G.Smith pass deep right to G.Wilson to DET 1 for 22 yards (D.Reed).Penalty on DET-D.Reed, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.New York Jets challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED.(Shotgun) G.Smith pass deep right to G.Wilson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Penalty on DET-D.Reed, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. G.Smith pass to S.Shepard is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. in the fourth quarter at 4:06, which moved the home side's chances from 90% to 61%.
- Largest lead: Lions by 14. Lead changes: 2.
- Lions's live win probability ranged from 60% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q4 11:17: Jeremy Ruckert 4 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) (NYJ 16, DET 24)
- Q4 4:06: Garrett Wilson 23 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Geno Smith Pass to Sterling Shepard for Two-Point Conversion) (NYJ 24, DET 24)
- Q4 2:25: Jahmyr Gibbs 11 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick) (NYJ 24, DET 31)
The box score
The Lions won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
- Total yards: NYJ 335, DET 381
- Yards per play: NYJ 5.5, DET 6.0
- Third downs: NYJ 6-12, DET 5-10
- Turnovers: NYJ 1, DET 0
- Penalties: NYJ 4-30, DET 4-41
- Possession: NYJ 28:30, DET 31:30
- Red zone: NYJ 2-3, DET 4-5
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Lions +12 to 1531, Jets -12 to 1418. The quarterback adjustment going in was DET +0, NYJ +22.
- Geno Smith (NYJ): 31/37, 321 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, QBR 129.8
- Jared Goff (DET): 25/32, 269 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, QBR 122.5
- Rushing: Jahmyr Gibbs (DET), 20 CAR, 99 YDS, 2 TD
- Receiving: Isaac TeSlaa (DET), 3 REC, 66 YDS
- Rushing: Breece Hall (NYJ), 13 CAR, 32 YDS
- Receiving: Garrett Wilson (NYJ), 10 REC, 107 YDS, 1 TD
The players
4 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged +17.9 and 4 of 4 had the winner; agents averaged +18.3 and 9 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Presser, Lions 80%, +21.0.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Since Saturday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Broncos at Panthers, 4 points toward DEN, now 41% for the home side (Elo 37%); Raiders at 49ers, 4 points toward LV, now 79% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 3 more below. Read more →
Tampa Bay Buccaneers rose to 1523; Atlanta Falcons fell to 1457. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Sep 19, 1 PM ET; last change Sun 12:19 PM ET. The consensus has moved away from DET by 2 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (DET) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 76% | 74% | -3 | 33 |
| Polymarket | 75% | 74% | -2 | 26 |
| Sportsbooks | 72% | 73% | — | 15 |
Consensus over time