Final: Lions 31, Saints 30
New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions, Week 1. The Lions won 31 to 30; the game turned on (No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Goff pass incomplete short right to J.Williams.. Attendance 62,897. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
The expected result: the market had the Lions at 70%, Elo at 67%, The System at 71%. Best forecaster on this game: The System (+16.6).
The swing: (No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Goff pass incomplete short right to J.Williams. in the fourth quarter at 0:40, which moved the home side's chances from 75% to 50%.
The Saints outgained the Lions (469 to 369 yards) and lost on turnovers (3 to 1). The better team on the day lost.
Elo: Lions +4 to 1535, Saints -4 to 1472. The quarterback adjustment going in was DET +0, NO -18.
| Against the forecasts | Elo: Lions 67%, +14.1 |
| Against the forecasts | The market: Lions 70%, +16.0 |
| Against the forecasts | The System: Lions 71%, +16.6 |
| How it happened | Largest lead: Lions by 21. Lead changes: 0. |
| How it happened | Lions's live win probability ranged from 38% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model). |
| How it happened | Q4 1:07: Juwan Johnson 9 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Daniel Carlson Kick) (NO 24, DET 24) |
| How it happened | Q5 5:04: Amon-Ra St. Brown 4 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick) (NO 24, DET 31) |
| The box score | Total yards: NO 469, DET 369 |
| The box score | Yards per play: NO 5.5, DET 5.1 |
| The box score | Third downs: NO 8-17, DET 5-13 |
| The box score | Turnovers: NO 3, DET 1 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Tyler Shough (NO): 35/56, 410 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT, QBR 51.1 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Jared Goff (DET): 26/39, 206 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, QBR 53.3 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Rushing: Jahmyr Gibbs (DET), 29 CAR, 156 YDS, 2 TD |
Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.