Lions at Dolphins: 87°F heat at kickoff Sunday 1 PM ET. Cardinals at Seahawks: 15 mph wind at kickoff Sunday 4 PM ET. In wind of 15+ mph, favorites have won 62% against a 65% forecast over 27 seasons; The System shrinks toward 50. In heat above 75°F favorites underperform slightly; The System shrinks a tenth. Read more →
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New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions
Final, recorded Fri 12:37 AM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 1, 2026 · Ford Field · Sunday, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · dome
New Orleans Saints2–5 · Elo 1451 · Tyler Shough (−18 Elo)
30–31
Detroit Lions
5–2 · Elo 1569 · Jared Goff · Home
Final: NO 30, DET 31. Elo moved DET 1531 → 1535 and NO 1476 → 1472.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | DET | NO | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | DET 67% | 67% | 33% | +14.1 | DET 1531 vs NO 1476, implied spread DET −4.8 |
| Closing spread | DET 70% | 70% | 30% | +16.0 | DET -7 |
| The blend | DET 71% | 71% | 29% | +16.6 |
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The spot: Tight agreement
Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 27 seasons (2,607 games) favorites here won 69.8% against a 67.6% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
Detroit Lions over the Saints: Elo 67%, market 70%. Tight agreement: go above both. Shough is costing 18 Elo.
Details
- Rest: DET 7 days, NO 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. DET: Jared Goff (0 Elo). NO: Tyler Shough (-18 Elo).
- Weather. Indoors (dome), so no weather adjustment.
The post-game report
Lions 31, Saints 30. New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions, Week 1. The Lions won 31 to 30; the game turned on (No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Goff pass incomplete short right to J.Williams.. Attendance 62,897. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
The expected result: the market had the Lions at 70%, Elo at 67%, The System at 71%. Best forecaster on this game: The System (+16.6).
- Elo: Lions 67%, +14.1
- The market: Lions 70%, +16.0
- The System: Lions 71%, +16.6
How it happened
The swing: (No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Goff pass incomplete short right to J.Williams. in the fourth quarter at 0:40, which moved the home side's chances from 75% to 50%.
- Largest lead: Lions by 21. Lead changes: 0.
- Lions's live win probability ranged from 38% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q4 1:07: Juwan Johnson 9 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Daniel Carlson Kick) (NO 24, DET 24)
- Q5 5:04: Amon-Ra St. Brown 4 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick) (NO 24, DET 31)
- Q5 1:34: Noah Fant 8 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) (NO 30, DET 31)
The box score
The Saints outgained the Lions (469 to 369 yards) and lost on turnovers (3 to 1). The better team on the day lost.
- Total yards: NO 469, DET 369
- Yards per play: NO 5.5, DET 5.1
- Third downs: NO 8-17, DET 5-13
- Turnovers: NO 3, DET 1
- Penalties: NO 6-53, DET 8-61
- Possession: NO 31:35, DET 36:51
- Red zone: NO 4-5, DET 4-5
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Lions +4 to 1535, Saints -4 to 1472. The quarterback adjustment going in was DET +0, NO -18.
- Tyler Shough (NO): 35/56, 410 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT, QBR 51.1
- Jared Goff (DET): 26/39, 206 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, QBR 53.3
- Rushing: Jahmyr Gibbs (DET), 29 CAR, 156 YDS, 2 TD
- Receiving: Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET), 10 REC, 67 YDS, 2 TD
- Rushing: Travis Etienne Jr. (NO), 9 CAR, 46 YDS
- Receiving: Chris Olave (NO), 10 REC, 182 YDS
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
Since Friday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Lions at Dolphins, 4 points toward MIA, now 26% for the home side (Elo 41%); Raiders at 49ers, 3 points toward LV, now 80% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 1 more below. Read more →
Tampa Bay Buccaneers rose to 1523; Atlanta Falcons fell to 1457. Read more →
Line movement
No market prices were recorded before this game.