Final: Raiders 27, Dolphins 13
Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders, Week 1. The Raiders won 27 to 13; the game turned on (Shotgun) M.Willis pass deep right to C.Douglas pushed ob at LV 22 for 25 yards (T.Stukes). Attendance 62,541. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
A close call on paper: the market had the Raiders at 59%, Elo at 42%, The System at 55%. Best forecaster on this game: The market (+8.2).
The swing: (Shotgun) M.Willis pass deep right to C.Douglas pushed ob at LV 22 for 25 yards (T.Stukes). in the second quarter at 5:35, which moved the home side's chances from 83% to 74%.
The Raiders won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
Elo: Raiders +33 to 1420, Dolphins -33 to 1440. The quarterback adjustment going in was LV +78, MIA +100.
| Against the forecasts | Elo: Raiders 42%, -8.6 |
| Against the forecasts | The market: Raiders 59%, +8.2 |
| Against the forecasts | The System: Raiders 55%, +4.8 |
| How it happened | Largest lead: Raiders by 14. Lead changes: 0. |
| How it happened | Raiders's live win probability ranged from 55% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model). |
| How it happened | Q3 12:44: Malik Willis 14 Yd Rush (Riley Patterson Kick) (MIA 13, LV 17) |
| How it happened | Q3 9:58: Ashton Jeanty 13 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Matt Gay Kick) (MIA 13, LV 24) |
| The box score | Total yards: MIA 259, LV 290 |
| The box score | Yards per play: MIA 5.2, LV 4.3 |
| The box score | Third downs: MIA 2-10, LV 5-13 |
| The box score | Turnovers: MIA 2, LV 2 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Malik Willis (MIA): 15/27, 220 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, QBR 27.7 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Kirk Cousins (LV): 21/30, 160 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT, QBR 44.4 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Rushing: Ashton Jeanty (LV), 23 CAR, 102 YDS |
Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.