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Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders
Final, recorded Fri 12:37 AM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 1, 2026 · Allegiant Stadium · Sunday, Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET · dome
Miami Dolphins1–6 · Elo 1369 · Malik Willis (+100 Elo)
13–27
Las Vegas Raiders
4–4 · Elo 1414 · Kirk Cousins (+78 Elo) · Home
Final: MIA 13, LV 27. Elo moved LV 1387 → 1420 and MIA 1472 → 1440.
Your pick
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What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | LV | MIA | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | MIA 58% | 42% | 58% | -8.6 | LV 1387 vs MIA 1472, implied spread LV +2.4 |
| Closing spread | LV 59% | 59% | 41% | +8.2 | LV -3 |
| The blend | LV 55% | 55% | 45% | +4.8 |
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The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 27 seasons (1,102 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 65% and the market 48%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Las Vegas Raiders over the Dolphins: Elo 42%, market 59%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Cousins is worth 78 Elo; Willis is worth 100 Elo.
Details
- Rest: LV 7 days, MIA 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. LV: Kirk Cousins (+78 Elo). MIA: Malik Willis (+100 Elo).
- Weather. Indoors (dome), so no weather adjustment.
The post-game report
Raiders 27, Dolphins 13. Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders, Week 1. The Raiders won 27 to 13; the game turned on (Shotgun) M.Willis pass deep right to C.Douglas pushed ob at LV 22 for 25 yards (T.Stukes). Attendance 62,541. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
A close call on paper: the market had the Raiders at 59%, Elo at 42%, The System at 55%. Best forecaster on this game: The market (+8.2).
- Elo: Raiders 42%, -8.6
- The market: Raiders 59%, +8.2
- The System: Raiders 55%, +4.8
How it happened
The swing: (Shotgun) M.Willis pass deep right to C.Douglas pushed ob at LV 22 for 25 yards (T.Stukes). in the second quarter at 5:35, which moved the home side's chances from 83% to 74%.
- Largest lead: Raiders by 14. Lead changes: 0.
- Raiders's live win probability ranged from 55% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q3 12:44: Malik Willis 14 Yd Rush (Riley Patterson Kick) (MIA 13, LV 17)
- Q3 9:58: Ashton Jeanty 13 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Matt Gay Kick) (MIA 13, LV 24)
- Q3 2:34: Matt Gay 30 Yd Field Goal (MIA 13, LV 27)
The box score
The Raiders won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
- Total yards: MIA 259, LV 290
- Yards per play: MIA 5.2, LV 4.3
- Third downs: MIA 2-10, LV 5-13
- Turnovers: MIA 2, LV 2
- Penalties: MIA 8-61, LV 6-29
- Possession: MIA 25:07, LV 34:53
- Red zone: MIA 1-3, LV 3-4
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Raiders +33 to 1420, Dolphins -33 to 1440. The quarterback adjustment going in was LV +78, MIA +100.
- Malik Willis (MIA): 15/27, 220 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, QBR 27.7
- Kirk Cousins (LV): 21/30, 160 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT, QBR 44.4
- Rushing: Ashton Jeanty (LV), 23 CAR, 102 YDS
- Receiving: Ashton Jeanty (LV), 6 REC, 45 YDS, 2 TD
- Rushing: Malik Willis (MIA), 6 CAR, 39 YDS, 1 TD
- Receiving: Caleb Douglas (MIA), 5 REC, 94 YDS
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Lions at Dolphins: 87°F heat at kickoff Sunday 1 PM ET. Cardinals at Seahawks: 15 mph wind at kickoff Sunday 4 PM ET. In wind of 15+ mph, favorites have won 62% against a 65% forecast over 27 seasons; The System shrinks toward 50. In heat above 75°F favorites underperform slightly; The System shrinks a tenth. Read more →
Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
Since Friday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Lions at Dolphins, 4 points toward MIA, now 26% for the home side (Elo 41%); Raiders at 49ers, 3 points toward LV, now 80% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 1 more below. Read more →
Line movement
No market prices were recorded before this game.