Final: Ravens 41, Colts 23
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts, Week 1. The Ravens won 41 to 23; the game turned on (Shotgun) L.Jackson pass short middle to Z.Flowers for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Loop extra p. Attendance 65,045. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
A close call on paper: the market had the Ravens at 59%, Elo at 50%, The System at 57%. Best forecaster on this game: The market (+8.2).
The swing: (Shotgun) L.Jackson pass short middle to Z.Flowers for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-N.Moore, Holder-R.Eckley. in the second quarter at 6:54, which moved the home side's chances from 20% to 10%.
The Ravens won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
Elo: Colts -29 to 1472, Ravens +29 to 1559. The quarterback adjustment going in was IND -6, BAL +15.
| Against the forecasts | Elo: Ravens 50%, +0.0 |
| Against the forecasts | The market: Ravens 59%, +8.2 |
| Against the forecasts | The System: Ravens 57%, +6.5 |
| How it happened | Largest lead: Ravens by 22. Lead changes: 1. |
| How it happened | Ravens's live win probability ranged from 43% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model). |
| How it happened | Q4 12:46: Derrick Henry 3 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick) (BAL 38, IND 16) |
| How it happened | Q4 10:26: Tyler Warren 9 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Spencer Shrader Kick) (BAL 38, IND 23) |
| The box score | Total yards: BAL 506, IND 251 |
| The box score | Yards per play: BAL 7.9, IND 4.7 |
| The box score | Third downs: BAL 3-9, IND 3-10 |
| The box score | Turnovers: BAL 1, IND 2 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Lamar Jackson (BAL): 17/25, 324 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, QBR 79.7 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Daniel Jones (IND): 19/31, 166 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, QBR 35 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Rushing: Jonathan Taylor (IND), 19 CAR, 98 YDS, 2 TD |
Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.