Jaguars at Ravens $211k, Raiders at 49ers $59k, Packers at Patriots $35k traded on Kalshi and Polymarket. The exchanges and the books agree within four points everywhere. Read more →
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Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts
Final, recorded Fri 12:37 AM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 1, 2026 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Sunday, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · closed
Baltimore Ravens4–4 · Elo 1503 · Lamar Jackson (+15 Elo)
41–23
Indianapolis Colts
2–6 · Elo 1434 · Daniel Jones · Home
Final: BAL 41, IND 23. Elo moved IND 1502 → 1472 and BAL 1530 → 1559.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | IND | BAL | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | BAL 50% | 50% | 50% | +0.0 | IND 1502 vs BAL 1530, implied spread IND +0.0 |
| Closing spread | BAL 59% | 41% | 59% | +8.2 | IND +3 |
| The blend | BAL 57% | 43% | 57% | +6.5 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Everything else
Moderate favorites where the models roughly agree. No edge found either way in the replays. The blend is as good as anything.
Baltimore Ravens over the Colts: Elo 50%, market 59%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine.
Details
- Rest: IND 7 days, BAL 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. IND: Daniel Jones (-6 Elo). BAL: Lamar Jackson (+15 Elo).
- Weather. Indoors (roof closed), so no weather adjustment.
The post-game report
Ravens 41, Colts 23. Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts, Week 1. The Ravens won 41 to 23; the game turned on (Shotgun) L.Jackson pass short middle to Z.Flowers for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Loop extra p. Attendance 65,045. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
A close call on paper: the market had the Ravens at 59%, Elo at 50%, The System at 57%. Best forecaster on this game: The market (+8.2).
- Elo: Ravens 50%, +0.0
- The market: Ravens 59%, +8.2
- The System: Ravens 57%, +6.5
How it happened
The swing: (Shotgun) L.Jackson pass short middle to Z.Flowers for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-N.Moore, Holder-R.Eckley. in the second quarter at 6:54, which moved the home side's chances from 20% to 10%.
- Largest lead: Ravens by 22. Lead changes: 1.
- Ravens's live win probability ranged from 43% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q4 12:46: Derrick Henry 3 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick) (BAL 38, IND 16)
- Q4 10:26: Tyler Warren 9 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Spencer Shrader Kick) (BAL 38, IND 23)
- Q4 4:09: Tyler Loop 45 Yd Field Goal (BAL 41, IND 23)
The box score
The Ravens won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
- Total yards: BAL 506, IND 251
- Yards per play: BAL 7.9, IND 4.7
- Third downs: BAL 3-9, IND 3-10
- Turnovers: BAL 1, IND 2
- Penalties: BAL 10-86, IND 4-29
- Possession: BAL 35:20, IND 24:40
- Red zone: BAL 3-4, IND 3-3
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Colts -29 to 1472, Ravens +29 to 1559. The quarterback adjustment going in was IND -6, BAL +15.
- Lamar Jackson (BAL): 17/25, 324 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, QBR 79.7
- Daniel Jones (IND): 19/31, 166 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, QBR 35
- Rushing: Jonathan Taylor (IND), 19 CAR, 98 YDS, 2 TD
- Receiving: Alec Pierce (IND), 4 REC, 61 YDS
- Rushing: Derrick Henry (BAL), 24 CAR, 144 YDS, 3 TD
- Receiving: Zay Flowers (BAL), 5 REC, 150 YDS, 1 TD
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
Most affected: Jaguars at Ravens (6 out or doubtful). Out at key spots: Jaylinn Hawkins (BAL, S), Lamar Jackson (BAL, QB), Eric Murray (JAX, S), Antonio Johnson (JAX, S). Every game page carries the full list for both teams. Read more →
Since Friday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Lions at Dolphins, 4 points toward MIA, now 26% for the home side (Elo 41%); Raiders at 49ers, 3 points toward LV, now 80% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 1 more below. Read more →
Since 2026-10-13: Chicago Bears now 75% to make the playoffs; Atlanta Falcons 16%. From 3,000 simulated seasons. Read more →
Line movement
No market prices were recorded before this game.