Final: Seahawks 13, Patriots 10
New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks, Week 1. The Seahawks won 13 to 10; the game turned on (Shotgun) D.Maye pass deep right intended for M.Hollins INTERCEPTED by J.Jobe [D.Lawrence]. Attendance 68,744. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
A close call on paper: the market had the Seahawks at 59%, Elo at 59%, The System at 61%. Best forecaster on this game: The System (+9.8).
The swing: (Shotgun) D.Maye pass deep right intended for M.Hollins INTERCEPTED by J.Jobe [D.Lawrence] at SEA -3. Touchback. in the fourth quarter at 0:26, which moved the home side's chances from 52% to 100%.
The Seahawks won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
Elo: Seahawks +11 to 1636, Patriots -11 to 1564. The quarterback adjustment going in was SEA -34, NE +1.
| Against the forecasts | Elo: Seahawks 59%, +8.2 |
| Against the forecasts | The market: Seahawks 59%, +8.2 |
| Against the forecasts | The System: Seahawks 61%, +9.8 |
| How it happened | Largest lead: Patriots by 10. Lead changes: 1. |
| How it happened | Seahawks's live win probability ranged from 18% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model). |
| How it happened | Q3 3:13: Jason Myers 30 Yd Field Goal (NE 10, SEA 3) |
| How it happened | Q4 11:28: Jaxon Smith-Njigba 45 Yd pass from Drew Lock (Jason Myers Kick) (NE 10, SEA 10) |
| The box score | Total yards: NE 277, SEA 285 |
| The box score | Yards per play: NE 4.1, SEA 5.9 |
| The box score | Third downs: NE 5-16, SEA 2-11 |
| The box score | Turnovers: NE 3, SEA 0 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Drake Maye (NE): 23/33, 178 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT, QBR 58 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Drew Lock (SEA): 16/22, 187 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, QBR 77 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Rushing: Jadarian Price (SEA), 10 CAR, 52 YDS |
Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.