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New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks
Final, recorded Fri 12:37 AM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 1, 2026 · Lumen Field · Wednesday, Sep 9, 8:20 PM ET · outdoors
New England Patriots5–3 · Elo 1599 · Drake Maye
10–13
Seattle Seahawks
4–3 · Elo 1643 · Drew Lock (−34 Elo) · Home
Final: NE 10, SEA 13. Elo moved SEA 1625 → 1636 and NE 1575 → 1564.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | SEA | NE | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | SEA 59% | 59% | 41% | +8.2 | SEA 1625 vs NE 1575, implied spread SEA −2.5 |
| Closing spread | SEA 59% | 59% | 41% | +8.2 | SEA -3 |
| The blend | SEA 61% | 61% | 39% | +9.8 |
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The spot: Tight agreement
Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 27 seasons (2,607 games) favorites here won 69.8% against a 67.6% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
Seattle Seahawks over the Patriots: Elo 59%, market 59%. Tight agreement: go above both. Lock is costing 34 Elo.
Details
- Rest: SEA 7 days, NE 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. SEA: Drew Lock (-34 Elo). NE: Drake Maye (+1 Elo).
- Weather. No forecast was recorded for this game.
The post-game report
Seahawks 13, Patriots 10. New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks, Week 1. The Seahawks won 13 to 10; the game turned on (Shotgun) D.Maye pass deep right intended for M.Hollins INTERCEPTED by J.Jobe [D.Lawrence]. Attendance 68,744. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
A close call on paper: the market had the Seahawks at 59%, Elo at 59%, The System at 61%. Best forecaster on this game: The System (+9.8).
- Elo: Seahawks 59%, +8.2
- The market: Seahawks 59%, +8.2
- The System: Seahawks 61%, +9.8
How it happened
The swing: (Shotgun) D.Maye pass deep right intended for M.Hollins INTERCEPTED by J.Jobe [D.Lawrence] at SEA -3. Touchback. in the fourth quarter at 0:26, which moved the home side's chances from 52% to 100%.
- Largest lead: Patriots by 10. Lead changes: 1.
- Seahawks's live win probability ranged from 18% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q3 3:13: Jason Myers 30 Yd Field Goal (NE 10, SEA 3)
- Q4 11:28: Jaxon Smith-Njigba 45 Yd pass from Drew Lock (Jason Myers Kick) (NE 10, SEA 10)
- Q4 5:50: Jason Myers 26 Yd Field Goal (NE 10, SEA 13)
The box score
The Seahawks won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
- Total yards: NE 277, SEA 285
- Yards per play: NE 4.1, SEA 5.9
- Third downs: NE 5-16, SEA 2-11
- Turnovers: NE 3, SEA 0
- Penalties: NE 7-50, SEA 10-98
- Possession: NE 34:17, SEA 25:43
- Red zone: NE 1-2, SEA 0-2
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Seahawks +11 to 1636, Patriots -11 to 1564. The quarterback adjustment going in was SEA -34, NE +1.
- Drake Maye (NE): 23/33, 178 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT, QBR 58
- Drew Lock (SEA): 16/22, 187 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, QBR 77
- Rushing: Jadarian Price (SEA), 10 CAR, 52 YDS
- Receiving: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA), 8 REC, 122 YDS, 1 TD
- Rushing: Rhamondre Stevenson (NE), 18 CAR, 51 YDS
- Receiving: Mack Hollins (NE), 4 REC, 51 YDS
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Lions at Dolphins: 87°F heat at kickoff Sunday 1 PM ET. Cardinals at Seahawks: 15 mph wind at kickoff Sunday 4 PM ET. In wind of 15+ mph, favorites have won 62% against a 65% forecast over 27 seasons; The System shrinks toward 50. In heat above 75°F favorites underperform slightly; The System shrinks a tenth. Read more →
Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
Line movement
No market prices were recorded before this game.