Final: Steelers 20, Falcons 13
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers, Week 1. The Steelers won 20 to 13; the game turned on (Shotgun) C.Rush pass short right intended for Bi.Robinson INTERCEPTED by T.Watt at ATL 35. Attendance 66,089. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
The expected result: the market had the Steelers at 69%, Elo at 65%, The System at 70%. Best forecaster on this game: The System (+16.0).
The swing: (Shotgun) C.Rush pass short right intended for Bi.Robinson INTERCEPTED by T.Watt at ATL 35. T.Watt for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Boswell extra point is GOOD, Center-C.Kuntz, Holder-C.Johnston. in the fourth quarter at 14:05, which moved the home side's chances from 67% to 91%.
The Steelers won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
Elo: Steelers +14 to 1526, Falcons -14 to 1465. The quarterback adjustment going in was PIT -2, ATL -29.
| Against the forecasts | Elo: Steelers 65%, +12.8 |
| Against the forecasts | The market: Steelers 69%, +15.4 |
| Against the forecasts | The System: Steelers 70%, +16.0 |
| How it happened | Largest lead: Steelers by 10. Lead changes: 2. |
| How it happened | Steelers's live win probability ranged from 52% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model). |
| How it happened | Q3 1:50: Nick Folk 51 Yd Field Goal (ATL 10, PIT 13) |
| How it happened | Q4 14:05: T.J. Watt 35 Yd Interception Return (Chris Boswell Kick) (ATL 10, PIT 20) |
| The box score | Total yards: ATL 238, PIT 264 |
| The box score | Yards per play: ATL 4.2, PIT 4.1 |
| The box score | Third downs: ATL 2-12, PIT 3-13 |
| The box score | Turnovers: ATL 2, PIT 1 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Cooper Rush (ATL): 12/22, 143 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, QBR 5 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Aaron Rodgers (PIT): 24/40, 221 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, QBR 42.5 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Rushing: Jaylen Warren (PIT), 10 CAR, 46 YDS |
Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.