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Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers
Final, recorded Fri 12:37 AM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 1, 2026 · Acrisure Stadium · Sunday, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · outdoors
Atlanta Falcons3–5 · Elo 1457 · Cooper Rush (−29 Elo)
13–20
Pittsburgh Steelers
6–2 · Elo 1578 · Aaron Rodgers · Home
Final: ATL 13, PIT 20. Elo moved PIT 1512 → 1526 and ATL 1479 → 1465.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | PIT | ATL | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | PIT 65% | 65% | 35% | +12.8 | PIT 1512 vs ATL 1479, implied spread PIT −4.3 |
| Closing spread | PIT 69% | 69% | 31% | +15.4 | PIT -6.5 |
| The blend | PIT 70% | 70% | 30% | +16.0 |
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The spot: Tight agreement
Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 27 seasons (2,607 games) favorites here won 69.8% against a 67.6% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
Pittsburgh Steelers over the Falcons: Elo 65%, market 69%. Tight agreement: go above both. Rush is costing 29 Elo.
Details
- Rest: PIT 7 days, ATL 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. PIT: Aaron Rodgers (-2 Elo). ATL: Cooper Rush (-29 Elo).
- Weather. No forecast was recorded for this game.
The post-game report
Steelers 20, Falcons 13. Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers, Week 1. The Steelers won 20 to 13; the game turned on (Shotgun) C.Rush pass short right intended for Bi.Robinson INTERCEPTED by T.Watt at ATL 35. Attendance 66,089. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
The expected result: the market had the Steelers at 69%, Elo at 65%, The System at 70%. Best forecaster on this game: The System (+16.0).
- Elo: Steelers 65%, +12.8
- The market: Steelers 69%, +15.4
- The System: Steelers 70%, +16.0
How it happened
The swing: (Shotgun) C.Rush pass short right intended for Bi.Robinson INTERCEPTED by T.Watt at ATL 35. T.Watt for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Boswell extra point is GOOD, Center-C.Kuntz, Holder-C.Johnston. in the fourth quarter at 14:05, which moved the home side's chances from 67% to 91%.
- Largest lead: Steelers by 10. Lead changes: 2.
- Steelers's live win probability ranged from 52% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q3 1:50: Nick Folk 51 Yd Field Goal (ATL 10, PIT 13)
- Q4 14:05: T.J. Watt 35 Yd Interception Return (Chris Boswell Kick) (ATL 10, PIT 20)
- Q4 10:35: Nick Folk 43 Yd Field Goal (ATL 13, PIT 20)
The box score
The Steelers won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
- Total yards: ATL 238, PIT 264
- Yards per play: ATL 4.2, PIT 4.1
- Third downs: ATL 2-12, PIT 3-13
- Turnovers: ATL 2, PIT 1
- Penalties: ATL 9-96, PIT 7-52
- Possession: ATL 31:07, PIT 28:53
- Red zone: ATL 0-0, PIT 1-2
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Steelers +14 to 1526, Falcons -14 to 1465. The quarterback adjustment going in was PIT -2, ATL -29.
- Cooper Rush (ATL): 12/22, 143 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, QBR 5
- Aaron Rodgers (PIT): 24/40, 221 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, QBR 42.5
- Rushing: Jaylen Warren (PIT), 10 CAR, 46 YDS
- Receiving: Michael Pittman Jr. (PIT), 3 REC, 58 YDS
- Rushing: Bijan Robinson (ATL), 21 CAR, 83 YDS
- Receiving: Bijan Robinson (ATL), 8 REC, 90 YDS, 1 TD
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Since 2026-10-13: Chicago Bears now 75% to make the playoffs; Atlanta Falcons 16%. From 3,000 simulated seasons. Read more →
Line movement
No market prices were recorded before this game.