Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers
Final, recorded 3 h ago · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 1, 2026 · Sunday, Sep 13, 5:00 PM · outdoors
Atlanta Falcons0–1 · Elo 1465 · Cooper Rush (-29)
13–20
Pittsburgh Steelers
1–0 · Elo 1526 · Aaron Rodgers · Home
Final: ATL 13, PIT 20. Elo moved PIT 1512 → 1526 and ATL 1479 → 1465.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | PIT | ATL | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | PIT 65% | 65% | 35% | +12.8 | PIT 1512 vs ATL 1479, implied spread PIT −4.3 |
| Closing spread | PIT 69% | 69% | 31% | +15.4 | PIT -6.5 |
| The blend | PIT 70% | 70% | 30% | +16.0 |
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The spot: Tight agreement
Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 24 seasons (2,312 games) favorites here won 69.2% against a 67.7% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
Pittsburgh Steelers over the Falcons: Elo 65%, market 69%. Tight agreement: go above both. Rush is costing 29 Elo.
Details
- Rest: PIT 7 days, ATL 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: PIT -2 (Aaron Rodgers), ATL -29 (Cooper Rush). How that works.
- Weather. No forecast was recorded for this game.
Line movement
No market prices were recorded before this game.