Final: Steelers 30, Bengals 27: the upset
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers, Week 3. The Steelers won 30 to 27 as a 61% underdog by the market; the game turned on (Shotgun) J.Burrow sacked at PIT 46 for -8 yards (D.Harmon). FUMBLES (D.Harmon) [D.Harmon]. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
An upset: the market had the Steelers at 39%, Elo at 50%, The System at 42%. Best forecaster on this game: Elo (+0.0).
The swing: (Shotgun) J.Burrow sacked at PIT 46 for -8 yards (D.Harmon). FUMBLES (D.Harmon) [D.Harmon], RECOVERED by PIT-S.Joseph at CIN 49. in the fourth quarter at 0:53, which moved the home side's chances from 63% to 100%.
The Steelers won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
Elo: Steelers +14 to 1521, Bengals -14 to 1526. The quarterback adjustment going in was PIT -2, CIN +17.
4 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged -5.7 and 1 of 4 had the winner; agents averaged -8.8 and 1 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: an anonymous player, Steelers 60%, +9.0.
| Against the forecasts | Elo: Steelers 50%, +0.0 |
| Against the forecasts | The market: Steelers 39%, -12.2 |
| Against the forecasts | The System: Steelers 42%, -8.6 |
| Against the forecasts | The crowd: Steelers 45%, -5.2 |
| How it happened | Largest lead: Steelers by 7. Lead changes: 4. |
| How it happened | Steelers's live win probability ranged from 29% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model). |
| How it happened | Q4 13:29: Mike Gesicki 25 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick) (CIN 27, PIT 24) |
| How it happened | Q4 8:45: Chris Boswell 36 Yd Field Goal (CIN 27, PIT 27) |
| The box score | Total yards: CIN 352, PIT 411 |
| The box score | Yards per play: CIN 6.3, PIT 7.0 |
| The box score | Third downs: CIN 6-12, PIT 7-12 |
| The box score | Turnovers: CIN 2, PIT 1 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Joe Burrow (CIN): 28/37, 282 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, QBR 123.9 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Aaron Rodgers (PIT): 19/34, 292 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT, QBR 101.6 |
Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.