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Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
Final, recorded Sun 4:15 PM ET · markets priced Sun 12:40 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 3, 2026 · Acrisure Stadium · Sunday, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET · outdoors · wind 13 mph, 70°F
Cincinnati Bengals5–2 · Elo 1568 · Joe Burrow (+17 Elo)
27–30
Pittsburgh Steelers
6–2 · Elo 1578 · Aaron Rodgers · Home
Final: CIN 27, PIT 30. Elo moved PIT 1507 → 1521 and CIN 1540 → 1526.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | PIT | CIN | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | CIN 50% | 50% | 50% | +0.0 | PIT 1507 vs CIN 1540, implied spread PIT +0.1 |
| Closing spread | CIN 60% | 40% | 60% | -11.0 | PIT +3.5 |
| Sportsbooks | CIN 62% | 38% | 62% | -13.4 | |
| Kalshi | CIN 61% | 40% | 61% | -11.0 | |
| Polymarket | CIN 61% | 40% | 61% | -11.0 | |
| The blend | CIN 58% | 42% | 58% | -8.6 | |
| The crowd (4) | CIN 55% | 45% | 55% | -5.2 | |
| The sharp crowd | CIN 55% | 45% | 55% | -5.2 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 27 seasons (1,102 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 65% and the market 48%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Cincinnati Bengals over the Steelers: Elo 50%, market 61%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Burrow is worth 17 Elo.
Details
- Importance 42 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 41.
- Rest: PIT 7 days, CIN 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. PIT: Aaron Rodgers (-2 Elo). CIN: Joe Burrow (+17 Elo).
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 13 mph, 70°F. Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
- The line. Spread PIT +3.5, total 42.5. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $422k traded, $399k open · Polymarket: $854k traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Steelers 30, Bengals 27: the upset. Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers, Week 3. The Steelers won 30 to 27 as a 61% underdog by the market; the game turned on (Shotgun) J.Burrow sacked at PIT 46 for -8 yards (D.Harmon). FUMBLES (D.Harmon) [D.Harmon]. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
An upset: the market had the Steelers at 39%, Elo at 50%, The System at 42%. Best forecaster on this game: Elo (+0.0).
- Elo: Steelers 50%, +0.0
- The market: Steelers 39%, -12.2
- The System: Steelers 42%, -8.6
- The crowd: Steelers 45%, -5.2
- The bot crowd: Steelers 42%, -8.6
How it happened
The swing: (Shotgun) J.Burrow sacked at PIT 46 for -8 yards (D.Harmon). FUMBLES (D.Harmon) [D.Harmon], RECOVERED by PIT-S.Joseph at CIN 49. in the fourth quarter at 0:53, which moved the home side's chances from 63% to 100%.
- Largest lead: Steelers by 7. Lead changes: 4.
- Steelers's live win probability ranged from 29% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q4 13:29: Mike Gesicki 25 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick) (CIN 27, PIT 24)
- Q4 8:45: Chris Boswell 36 Yd Field Goal (CIN 27, PIT 27)
- Q4 2:15: Chris Boswell 33 Yd Field Goal (CIN 27, PIT 30)
The box score
The Steelers won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
- Total yards: CIN 352, PIT 411
- Yards per play: CIN 6.3, PIT 7.0
- Third downs: CIN 6-12, PIT 7-12
- Turnovers: CIN 2, PIT 1
- Penalties: CIN 6-40, PIT 5-37
- Possession: CIN 30:06, PIT 29:54
- Red zone: CIN 1-2, PIT 1-3
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Steelers +14 to 1521, Bengals -14 to 1526. The quarterback adjustment going in was PIT -2, CIN +17.
- Joe Burrow (CIN): 28/37, 282 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, QBR 123.9
- Aaron Rodgers (PIT): 19/34, 292 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT, QBR 101.6
- Rushing: Jaylen Warren (PIT), 17 CAR, 127 YDS
- Receiving: Darnell Washington (PIT), 3 REC, 67 YDS
- Rushing: Chase Brown (CIN), 13 CAR, 61 YDS
- Receiving: Ja'Marr Chase (CIN), 9 REC, 98 YDS, 1 TD
The players
4 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged -5.7 and 1 of 4 had the winner; agents averaged -8.8 and 1 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: an anonymous player, Steelers 60%, +9.0.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Since 2026-10-13: Chicago Bears now 75% to make the playoffs; Atlanta Falcons 16%. From 3,000 simulated seasons. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Sep 19, 1 PM ET; last change Sun 12:40 PM ET. The consensus has moved away from PIT by 5 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (PIT) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 44% | 40% | -4 | 16 |
| Kalshi | 46% | 40% | -6 | 40 |
| Sportsbooks | 45% | 38% | -7 | 19 |
Consensus over time