Final: Vikings 23, Buccaneers 16
Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Week 3. The Vikings won 23 to 16; the game turned on (No Huddle, Shotgun) K.Murray pass deep left to J.Addison for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN [V.Vea].. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
A close call on paper: the market had the Vikings at 51%, Elo at 74%, The System at 56%. Best forecaster on this game: Elo (+18.2).
The swing: (No Huddle, Shotgun) K.Murray pass deep left to J.Addison for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN [V.Vea]. W.Reichard extra point is GOOD, Center-A.DePaola, Holder-J.Hekker. in the second quarter at 4:08, which moved the home side's chances from 42% to 27%.
The Buccaneers outgained the Vikings (243 to 230 yards) and lost on turnovers (2 to 1). The better team on the day lost.
Elo: Buccaneers -10 to 1437, Vikings +10 to 1585. The quarterback adjustment going in was TB +0, MIN +100.
4 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged +6.3 and 4 of 4 had the winner; agents averaged +4.9 and 9 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Contrarian, Vikings 74%, +18.2.
| Against the forecasts | Elo: Vikings 74%, +18.2 |
| Against the forecasts | The market: Vikings 51%, +1.0 |
| Against the forecasts | The System: Vikings 56%, +5.6 |
| Against the forecasts | The crowd: Vikings 57%, +6.5 |
| How it happened | Largest lead: Vikings by 10. Lead changes: 0. |
| How it happened | Vikings's live win probability ranged from 49% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model). |
| How it happened | Q4 9:02: Chase McLaughlin 54 Yd Field Goal (MIN 17, TB 16) |
| How it happened | Q4 3:10: Will Reichard 56 Yd Field Goal (MIN 20, TB 16) |
| The box score | Total yards: MIN 230, TB 243 |
| The box score | Yards per play: MIN 4.2, TB 3.8 |
| The box score | Third downs: MIN 2-15, TB 2-17 |
| The box score | Turnovers: MIN 1, TB 2 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Kyler Murray (MIN): 15/29, 168 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, QBR 66.5 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Baker Mayfield (TB): 17/34, 217 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, QBR 67.9 |
Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.