Since Saturday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Broncos at Panthers, 4 points toward DEN, now 41% for the home side (Elo 37%); Raiders at 49ers, 4 points toward LV, now 79% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 3 more below. Read more →
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Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Final, recorded Sun 7:30 PM ET · markets priced Sun 4:00 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 3, 2026 · Raymond James Stadium · Sunday, Sep 27, 4:05 PM ET · outdoors · wind 7 mph, 84°F (heat hurts favorites)
Minnesota Vikings6–1 · Elo 1584 · Kyler Murray (+100 Elo)
23–16
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3–5 · Elo 1523 · Baker Mayfield · Home
Final: MIN 23, TB 16. Elo moved TB 1447 → 1437 and MIN 1575 → 1585.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | TB | MIN | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | MIN 74% | 26% | 74% | +18.2 | TB 1447 vs MIN 1575, implied spread TB +7.2 |
| Closing spread | MIN 54% | 46% | 54% | +3.8 | TB +1.5 |
| Sportsbooks | MIN 51% | 49% | 51% | +1.0 | |
| Kalshi | MIN 52% | 49% | 52% | +1.0 | |
| Polymarket | MIN 52% | 49% | 52% | +1.0 | |
| The blend | MIN 57% | 43% | 57% | +6.5 | |
| The crowd (4) | MIN 57% | 43% | 57% | +6.5 | |
| The sharp crowd | MIN 57% | 43% | 57% | +6.5 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 27 seasons (1,102 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 65% and the market 48%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Minnesota Vikings over the Buccaneers: Elo 74%, market 51%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Murray is worth 100 Elo; wind 7 mph, 84°F (heat hurts favorites).
Details
- Importance 34 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 36.
- Rest: TB 7 days, MIN 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. TB: Baker Mayfield (0 Elo). MIN: Kyler Murray (+100 Elo).
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 7 mph, 84°F (heat hurts favorites). Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
- The line. Spread TB +1, total 42.5. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $596k traded, $579k open · Polymarket: $811k traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Vikings 23, Buccaneers 16. Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Week 3. The Vikings won 23 to 16; the game turned on (No Huddle, Shotgun) K.Murray pass deep left to J.Addison for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN [V.Vea].. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
A close call on paper: the market had the Vikings at 51%, Elo at 74%, The System at 56%. Best forecaster on this game: Elo (+18.2).
- Elo: Vikings 74%, +18.2
- The market: Vikings 51%, +1.0
- The System: Vikings 56%, +5.6
- The crowd: Vikings 57%, +6.5
- The bot crowd: Vikings 56%, +5.6
How it happened
The swing: (No Huddle, Shotgun) K.Murray pass deep left to J.Addison for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN [V.Vea]. W.Reichard extra point is GOOD, Center-A.DePaola, Holder-J.Hekker. in the second quarter at 4:08, which moved the home side's chances from 42% to 27%.
- Largest lead: Vikings by 10. Lead changes: 0.
- Vikings's live win probability ranged from 49% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q4 9:02: Chase McLaughlin 54 Yd Field Goal (MIN 17, TB 16)
- Q4 3:10: Will Reichard 56 Yd Field Goal (MIN 20, TB 16)
- Q4 0:33: Will Reichard 43 Yd Field Goal (MIN 23, TB 16)
The box score
The Buccaneers outgained the Vikings (243 to 230 yards) and lost on turnovers (2 to 1). The better team on the day lost.
- Total yards: MIN 230, TB 243
- Yards per play: MIN 4.2, TB 3.8
- Third downs: MIN 2-15, TB 2-17
- Turnovers: MIN 1, TB 2
- Penalties: MIN 9-95, TB 8-81
- Possession: MIN 29:03, TB 30:57
- Red zone: MIN 0-0, TB 0-2
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Buccaneers -10 to 1437, Vikings +10 to 1585. The quarterback adjustment going in was TB +0, MIN +100.
- Kyler Murray (MIN): 15/29, 168 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, QBR 66.5
- Baker Mayfield (TB): 17/34, 217 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, QBR 67.9
- Rushing: Bucky Irving (TB), 15 CAR, 46 YDS
- Receiving: Emeka Egbuka (TB), 5 REC, 62 YDS
- Rushing: Aaron Jones Sr. (MIN), 17 CAR, 58 YDS
- Receiving: Jordan Addison (MIN), 5 REC, 90 YDS, 1 TD
The players
4 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged +6.3 and 4 of 4 had the winner; agents averaged +4.9 and 9 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Contrarian, Vikings 74%, +18.2.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Tampa Bay Buccaneers rose to 1523; Atlanta Falcons fell to 1457. Read more →
AFC East: Bills 5-1. AFC North: Browns 5-2. AFC South: Jaguars 4-2. AFC West: Chiefs 5-1. NFC East: Giants 4-2-1. NFC North: Vikings 6-0. NFC South: Panthers 3-3. NFC West: 49ers 6-1. Unbeaten: Vikings. Winless: Chargers. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Sep 19, 4 PM ET; last change Sun 4:00 PM ET. The consensus has moved away from TB by 4 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (TB) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 53% | 49% | -4 | 37 |
| Polymarket | 53% | 49% | -5 | 41 |
| Sportsbooks | 52% | 49% | -4 | 19 |
Consensus over time