Final: Vikings 39, Packers 22
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings, Week 1. The Vikings won 39 to 22; the game turned on (Shotgun) J.Love sacked at GB 11 for -12 yards (sack split by A.Van Ginkel and B.Cashman).. Attendance 66,940. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
A close call on paper: the market had the Vikings at 54%, Elo at 66%, The System at 57%. Best forecaster on this game: Elo (+13.4).
The swing: (Shotgun) J.Love sacked at GB 11 for -12 yards (sack split by A.Van Ginkel and B.Cashman). FUMBLES (A.Van Ginkel) [B.Cashman], RECOVERED by MIN-A.Van Ginkel at GB 8. A.Van Ginkel to GB 1 for 7 yards (Z.Bako-Bewele). in the fourth quarter at 5:01, which moved the home side's chances from 72% to 92%.
The Packers outgained the Vikings (419 to 239 yards) and lost on turnovers (2 to 1). The better team on the day lost.
Elo: Vikings +19 to 1555, Packers -19 to 1500. The quarterback adjustment going in was MIN +47, GB +0.
| Against the forecasts | Elo: Vikings 66%, +13.4 |
| Against the forecasts | The market: Vikings 54%, +3.8 |
| Against the forecasts | The System: Vikings 57%, +6.5 |
| How it happened | Largest lead: Vikings by 17. Lead changes: 1. |
| How it happened | Vikings's live win probability ranged from 8% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model). |
| How it happened | Q4 6:37: Aaron Jones Sr. 3 Yd Rush (Carson Wentz Pass to Justin Jefferson for Two-Point Conversion) (GB 22, MIN 25) |
| How it happened | Q4 4:48: Jordan Mason 1 Yd Rush (Will Reichard Kick) (GB 22, MIN 32) |
| The box score | Total yards: GB 419, MIN 239 |
| The box score | Yards per play: GB 6.3, MIN 3.9 |
| The box score | Third downs: GB 3-12, MIN 8-15 |
| The box score | Turnovers: GB 2, MIN 1 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Jordan Love (GB): 21/42, 387 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, QBR 54.7 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Carson Wentz (MIN): 12/19, 133 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, QBR 58.8 |
| Quarterbacks and Elo | Rushing: Jordan Mason (MIN), 15 CAR, 59 YDS, 1 TD |
Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.