Jaguars at Ravens $211k, Raiders at 49ers $59k, Packers at Patriots $35k traded on Kalshi and Polymarket. The exchanges and the books agree within four points everywhere. Read more →
← Back to Week 1 picks · Back to Week 1 predictions
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
Final, recorded Fri 12:37 AM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 1, 2026 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Sunday, Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET · dome
Green Bay Packers5–3 · Elo 1533 · Jordan Love
22–39
Minnesota Vikings
6–1 · Elo 1584 · Carson Wentz (+47 Elo) · Home
Final: GB 22, MIN 39. Elo moved MIN 1536 → 1555 and GB 1519 → 1500.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | MIN | GB | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | MIN 66% | 66% | 34% | +13.4 | MIN 1536 vs GB 1519, implied spread MIN −4.5 |
| Closing spread | MIN 54% | 54% | 46% | +3.8 | MIN -1.5 |
| The blend | MIN 57% | 57% | 43% | +6.5 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 27 seasons (1,102 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 65% and the market 48%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Minnesota Vikings over the Packers: Elo 66%, market 54%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Wentz is worth 47 Elo.
Details
- Rest: MIN 7 days, GB 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. MIN: Carson Wentz (+47 Elo). GB: Jordan Love (+0 Elo).
- Weather. Indoors (dome), so no weather adjustment.
The post-game report
Vikings 39, Packers 22. Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings, Week 1. The Vikings won 39 to 22; the game turned on (Shotgun) J.Love sacked at GB 11 for -12 yards (sack split by A.Van Ginkel and B.Cashman).. Attendance 66,940. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
A close call on paper: the market had the Vikings at 54%, Elo at 66%, The System at 57%. Best forecaster on this game: Elo (+13.4).
- Elo: Vikings 66%, +13.4
- The market: Vikings 54%, +3.8
- The System: Vikings 57%, +6.5
How it happened
The swing: (Shotgun) J.Love sacked at GB 11 for -12 yards (sack split by A.Van Ginkel and B.Cashman). FUMBLES (A.Van Ginkel) [B.Cashman], RECOVERED by MIN-A.Van Ginkel at GB 8. A.Van Ginkel to GB 1 for 7 yards (Z.Bako-Bewele). in the fourth quarter at 5:01, which moved the home side's chances from 72% to 92%.
- Largest lead: Vikings by 17. Lead changes: 1.
- Vikings's live win probability ranged from 8% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q4 6:37: Aaron Jones Sr. 3 Yd Rush (Carson Wentz Pass to Justin Jefferson for Two-Point Conversion) (GB 22, MIN 25)
- Q4 4:48: Jordan Mason 1 Yd Rush (Will Reichard Kick) (GB 22, MIN 32)
- Q4 3:55: Justin Jefferson 9 Yd pass from Carson Wentz (Will Reichard Kick) (GB 22, MIN 39)
The box score
The Packers outgained the Vikings (419 to 239 yards) and lost on turnovers (2 to 1). The better team on the day lost.
- Total yards: GB 419, MIN 239
- Yards per play: GB 6.3, MIN 3.9
- Third downs: GB 3-12, MIN 8-15
- Turnovers: GB 2, MIN 1
- Penalties: GB 12-98, MIN 3-15
- Possession: GB 27:02, MIN 32:58
- Red zone: GB 1-4, MIN 4-4
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Vikings +19 to 1555, Packers -19 to 1500. The quarterback adjustment going in was MIN +47, GB +0.
- Jordan Love (GB): 21/42, 387 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, QBR 54.7
- Carson Wentz (MIN): 12/19, 133 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, QBR 58.8
- Rushing: Jordan Mason (MIN), 15 CAR, 59 YDS, 1 TD
- Receiving: Justin Jefferson (MIN), 8 REC, 92 YDS, 2 TD
- Rushing: MarShawn Lloyd (GB), 13 CAR, 37 YDS
- Receiving: Christian Watson (GB), 6 REC, 147 YDS, 2 TD
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
Tampa Bay Buccaneers rose to 1523; Atlanta Falcons fell to 1457. Read more →
AFC East: Bills 5-1. AFC North: Browns 5-2. AFC South: Jaguars 4-2. AFC West: Chiefs 5-1. NFC East: Giants 4-2-1. NFC North: Vikings 6-0. NFC South: Panthers 3-3. NFC West: 49ers 6-1. Unbeaten: Vikings. Winless: Chargers. Read more →
Line movement
No market prices were recorded before this game.