Line moves for Week 6: money toward the Cowboys
From the archive. This item is no longer current; the numbers below are as they stood when it was written.
Since Thursday: Cowboys at Packers, 3 points toward DAL, now 49% for the home side (Elo 60%).
A move of three points or more in three days is unusual; most NFL lines drift a point or two all week. It usually means news, an injury report, a quarterback decision, or a large bet, that the market is pricing before it shows up anywhere else.
Elo does not see news, so its numbers have not moved. That leaves Elo and the market more than ten points apart on 1 of this game, the spot where, over 27 seasons, the market was right and Elo's side won about half the time.
The System weights the market three to one over Elo, so it follows a move like this most of the way. If you have a pick on one of these games, the question is whether you know why the money moved.
| DAL at GB | 52% → 49% for GB; Elo 60% |
| DAL at GB, Sportsbooks | 52% → 51% |
| DAL at GB, Polymarket | 52% → 49% |
| DAL at GB, Kalshi | 52% → 50% |
Related
Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.