Money is moving toward the Chiefs
Chiefs at Dolphins: the markets have moved 4 points toward KC since Friday, now 14% for the home side. Elo has MIA at 48%.
A move of this size in three days is unusual; most NFL lines drift a point or two all week. It usually means news, an injury report, a quarterback decision, or a large bet, that the market is pricing before it shows up anywhere else.
Elo does not see news, so its number for MIA has not moved. That leaves Elo and the market more than ten points apart, the spot where, over 27 seasons, the market was right and Elo's side won about half the time.
The System weights the market three to one over Elo, so it follows a move like this most of the way. If you have a pick on this game, the question is whether you know why the money moved.
| Polymarket (MIA) | 18% → 14% |
| Kalshi (MIA) | 17% → 14% |
| Sportsbooks (MIA) | 20% → 16% |
| Elo (MIA) | 48% |
| Spread | MIA +11.5 |
| Total | 45.5 |
| Kickoff | Sunday 1:00 PM ET |
Related
Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.