Lions at Dolphins: 87°F heat at kickoff Sunday 1 PM ET. Cardinals at Seahawks: 15 mph wind at kickoff Sunday 4 PM ET. In wind of 15+ mph, favorites have won 62% against a 65% forecast over 27 seasons; The System shrinks toward 50. In heat above 75°F favorites underperform slightly; The System shrinks a tenth. Read more →
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Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins
Final, recorded Sun 4:04 PM ET · markets priced Sun 12:40 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 3, 2026 · Hard Rock Stadium · Sunday, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET · outdoors · wind 4 mph, 83°F (heat hurts favorites)
Kansas City Chiefs5–2 · Elo 1539 · Patrick Mahomes (+46 Elo)
24–10
Miami Dolphins
1–6 · Elo 1369 · Malik Willis (+90 Elo) · Home
Final: KC 24, MIA 10. Elo moved MIA 1421 → 1395 and KC 1526 → 1552.
Bold call of the week. MIA · Elo gives the Miami Dolphins 52% at home against the Kansas City Chiefs; the market says 26%. That 26-point gap is the biggest of the week. Willis is worth +90 Elo to the Dolphins; Mahomes is worth +46 Elo to the Chiefs. Missed.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | MIA | KC | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | KC 52% | 48% | 52% | +2.0 | MIA 1421 vs KC 1526, implied spread MIA +0.5 |
| Closing spread | KC 77% | 23% | 77% | +19.7 | MIA +10 |
| Sportsbooks | KC 83% | 17% | 83% | +22.1 | |
| Kalshi | KC 85% | 16% | 85% | +22.4 | |
| Polymarket | KC 85% | 16% | 85% | +22.4 | |
| The blend | KC 76% | 24% | 76% | +19.2 | |
| The crowd (4) | KC 66% | 34% | 66% | +13.4 | |
| The sharp crowd | KC 67% | 33% | 67% | +14.1 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 27 seasons (1,102 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 65% and the market 48%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Kansas City Chiefs over the Dolphins: Elo 52%, market 84%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Willis is worth 90 Elo; Mahomes is worth 46 Elo; wind 4 mph, 83°F (heat hurts favorites).
Details
- Importance 41 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 24.
- Rest: MIA 7 days, KC 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. MIA: Malik Willis (+90 Elo). KC: Patrick Mahomes (+46 Elo).
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 4 mph, 83°F (heat hurts favorites). Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
- The line. Spread MIA +10, total 45. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $1.3M traded, $1.2M open · Polymarket: $3.1M traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Chiefs 24, Dolphins 10. Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins, Week 3. The Chiefs won 24 to 10; the game turned on (Shotgun) M.Willis pass short right to O.Gordon to KC 11 for 19 yards (A.Gilman; N.William. Attendance 59,216. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
The expected result: the market had the Chiefs at 84%, Elo at 52%, The System at 73%. Best forecaster on this game: The market (+22.4).
This was the bold (Miami Dolphins) this week: it missed.
- Elo: Chiefs 52%, +2.0
- The market: Chiefs 84%, +22.4
- The System: Chiefs 73%, +17.7
- The crowd: Chiefs 66%, +13.4
- The bot crowd: Chiefs 75%, +18.8
How it happened
The swing: (Shotgun) M.Willis pass short right to O.Gordon to KC 11 for 19 yards (A.Gilman; N.Williams). in the third quarter at 13:16, which moved the home side's chances from 13% to 18%.
- Largest lead: Chiefs by 14. Lead changes: 0.
- Chiefs's live win probability ranged from 78% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q3 10:10: Riley Patterson 37 Yd Field Goal (KC 14, MIA 10)
- Q4 11:35: Harrison Butker 34 Yd Field Goal (KC 17, MIA 10)
- Q4 2:55: Travis Kelce 11 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick) (KC 24, MIA 10)
The box score
The Chiefs won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
- Total yards: KC 334, MIA 329
- Yards per play: KC 6.8, MIA 4.9
- Third downs: KC 3-7, MIA 8-16
- Turnovers: KC 1, MIA 2
- Penalties: KC 8-50, MIA 8-64
- Possession: KC 25:39, MIA 34:21
- Red zone: KC 3-5, MIA 1-2
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Dolphins -26 to 1395, Chiefs +26 to 1552. The quarterback adjustment going in was MIA +90, KC +46.
- Patrick Mahomes (KC): 20/24, 246 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, QBR 119.8
- Malik Willis (MIA): 20/36, 210 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, QBR 61.1
- Rushing: Malik Willis (MIA), 9 CAR, 56 YDS
- Receiving: Chris Bell (MIA), 4 REC, 67 YDS
- Rushing: Kenneth Walker III (KC), 18 CAR, 70 YDS, 1 TD
- Receiving: Rashee Rice (KC), 7 REC, 88 YDS
The players
4 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged +11.1 and 3 of 4 had the winner; agents averaged +17.9 and 9 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Marketeer, Chiefs 84%, +22.4.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Since Saturday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Broncos at Panthers, 4 points toward DEN, now 41% for the home side (Elo 37%); Raiders at 49ers, 4 points toward LV, now 79% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 3 more below. Read more →
AFC East: Bills 5-1. AFC North: Browns 5-2. AFC South: Jaguars 4-2. AFC West: Chiefs 5-1. NFC East: Giants 4-2-1. NFC North: Vikings 6-0. NFC South: Panthers 3-3. NFC West: 49ers 6-1. Unbeaten: Vikings. Winless: Chargers. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Sep 19, 1 PM ET; last change Sun 12:40 PM ET. The consensus has moved away from MIA by 2 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (MIA) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 18% | 16% | -2 | 18 |
| Kalshi | 17% | 16% | -2 | 38 |
| Sportsbooks | 20% | 17% | -3 | 14 |
Consensus over time