Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins
Game data updated 3 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 3, 2026 · Sunday, Sep 27, 5:00 PM · outdoors
Kansas City Chiefs1–0 · Elo 1518 · Patrick Mahomes (+46)
Miami Dolphins
0–1 · Elo 1440 · Malik Willis (+90) · Home
Bold call of the week. This game is one of our two picks this week. Sign in to see it.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | MIA | KC | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | MIA 52% | 52% | 48% | MIA 1440 vs KC 1518, implied spread MIA −0.6 |
| Closing spread | KC 74% | 26% | 74% | MIA +8.5 |
| The blend | KC 67% | 33% | 67% |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in, it's free.
The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Kansas City Chiefs over the Dolphins: Elo 48%, market 74%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Willis is worth 90 Elo; Mahomes is worth 46 Elo.
Details
- Rest: MIA 7 days, KC 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: MIA +90 (Malik Willis), KC +46 (Patrick Mahomes). How that works.
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Sunday.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.