Money is moving toward the Jaguars
From the archive. This item is no longer current; the numbers below are as they stood when it was written.
Patriots at Jaguars: the markets have moved 3 points toward JAX since Thursday, now 58% for the home side. Elo has JAX at 53%.
A move of this size in three days is unusual; most NFL lines drift a point or two all week. It usually means news, an injury report, a quarterback decision, or a large bet, that the market is pricing before it shows up anywhere else.
Elo does not see news, so its number for JAX has not moved. Elo and the market are still within ten points, so The System simply averages them.
The System weights the market three to one over Elo, so it follows a move like this most of the way. If you have a pick on this game, the question is whether you know why the money moved.
| Kalshi (JAX) | 55% → 57% |
| Polymarket (JAX) | 56% → 58% |
| Sportsbooks (JAX) | 55% → 55% |
| Elo (JAX) | 53% |
| Spread | JAX -2.5 |
| Total | 45.5 |
| Kickoff | Sunday 1:00 PM ET |
Related
Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.