Jaguars at Ravens $216k, Raiders at 49ers $59k, Packers at Patriots $35k traded on Kalshi and Polymarket. The exchanges and the books agree within four points everywhere. Read more →
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New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars
Final, recorded Sun 4:04 PM ET · markets priced Sun 12:40 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 3, 2026 · EverBank Stadium · Sunday, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET · outdoors · wind 8 mph, 84°F (heat hurts favorites)
New England Patriots5–3 · Elo 1599 · Drake Maye
6–35
Jacksonville Jaguars
5–2 · Elo 1605 · Trevor Lawrence · Home
Final: NE 6, JAX 35. Elo moved JAX 1552 → 1584 and NE 1583 → 1551.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | JAX | NE | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | JAX 53% | 53% | 47% | +2.9 | JAX 1552 vs NE 1583, implied spread JAX −0.8 |
| Closing spread | JAX 59% | 59% | 41% | +8.2 | JAX -3 |
| Sportsbooks | JAX 58% | 58% | 42% | +7.4 | |
| Kalshi | JAX 60% | 60% | 41% | +9.0 | |
| Polymarket | JAX 60% | 60% | 41% | +9.0 | |
| The blend | JAX 58% | 58% | 42% | +7.4 | |
| The crowd (4) | JAX 68% | 68% | 32% | +14.8 | |
| The sharp crowd | JAX 67% | 67% | 33% | +14.1 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Everything else
Moderate favorites where the models roughly agree. No edge found either way in the replays. The blend is as good as anything.
Jacksonville Jaguars over the Patriots: Elo 53%, market 59%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. wind 8 mph, 84°F (heat hurts favorites).
Details
- Importance 45 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 56.
- Rest: JAX 7 days, NE 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. JAX: Trevor Lawrence (+3 Elo). NE: Drake Maye (+1 Elo).
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 8 mph, 84°F (heat hurts favorites). Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
- The line. Spread JAX -3, total 46. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $500k traded, $487k open · Polymarket: $1.9M traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Jaguars 35, Patriots 6. New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars, Week 3. The Jaguars won 35 to 6; the game turned on D.Maye pass short right intended for E.Chism INTERCEPTED by T.Hunter [F.Oluokun] at JAX -9. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
A close call on paper: the market had the Jaguars at 59%, Elo at 53%, The System at 57%. Best forecaster on this game: The crowd (+14.8).
- Elo: Jaguars 53%, +2.9
- The market: Jaguars 59%, +8.2
- The System: Jaguars 57%, +6.5
- The crowd: Jaguars 68%, +14.8
- The bot crowd: Jaguars 58%, +7.4
How it happened
The swing: D.Maye pass short right intended for E.Chism INTERCEPTED by T.Hunter [F.Oluokun] at JAX -9. Touchback. in the second quarter at 1:02, which moved the home side's chances from 73% to 84%.
- Largest lead: Jaguars by 29. Lead changes: 0.
- Jaguars's live win probability ranged from 48% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q3 0:50: Chris Rodriguez Jr. 5 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick) (NE 3, JAX 28)
- Q4 13:17: Andy Borregales 40 Yd Field Goal (NE 6, JAX 28)
- Q4 8:02: Bhayshul Tuten 1 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick) (NE 6, JAX 35)
The box score
The Patriots outgained the Jaguars (317 to 315 yards) and lost on turnovers (3 to 1). The better team on the day lost.
- Total yards: NE 317, JAX 315
- Yards per play: NE 5.3, JAX 5.2
- Third downs: NE 4-12, JAX 8-12
- Turnovers: NE 3, JAX 1
- Penalties: NE 9-68, JAX 7-56
- Possession: NE 28:07, JAX 31:53
- Red zone: NE 0-3, JAX 5-5
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Jaguars +32 to 1584, Patriots -32 to 1551.
- Drake Maye (NE): 14/25, 199 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT, QBR 48.6
- Trevor Lawrence (JAX): 19/29, 182 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT, QBR 102.9
- Rushing: Bhayshul Tuten (JAX), 15 CAR, 73 YDS, 1 TD
- Receiving: Jakobi Meyers (JAX), 7 REC, 64 YDS, 1 TD
- Rushing: TreVeyon Henderson (NE), 8 CAR, 23 YDS
- Receiving: Mack Hollins (NE), 6 REC, 87 YDS
The players
4 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged +11.3 and 4 of 4 had the winner; agents averaged +7.2 and 9 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: an anonymous player, Jaguars 100%, +25.0.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
Most affected: Jaguars at Ravens (6 out or doubtful). Out at key spots: Jaylinn Hawkins (BAL, S), Lamar Jackson (BAL, QB), Eric Murray (JAX, S), Antonio Johnson (JAX, S). Every game page carries the full list for both teams. Read more →
Since Saturday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Broncos at Panthers, 4 points toward DEN, now 41% for the home side (Elo 37%); Raiders at 49ers, 4 points toward LV, now 79% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 3 more below. Read more →
AFC East: Bills 5-1. AFC North: Browns 5-2. AFC South: Jaguars 4-2. AFC West: Chiefs 5-1. NFC East: Giants 4-2-1. NFC North: Vikings 6-0. NFC South: Panthers 3-3. NFC West: 49ers 6-1. Unbeaten: Vikings. Winless: Chargers. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Sep 19, 1 PM ET; last change Sun 12:40 PM ET. The consensus has moved toward JAX by 4 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (JAX) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 56% | 60% | +4 | 30 |
| Kalshi | 55% | 60% | +5 | 26 |
| Sportsbooks | 55% | 58% | +4 | 19 |
Consensus over time