New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars
Game data updated 4 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 3, 2026 · Sunday, Sep 27, 5:00 PM · outdoors
New England Patriots0–1 · Elo 1564 · Drake Maye
Jacksonville Jaguars
1–0 · Elo 1571 · Trevor Lawrence · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | JAX | NE | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | JAX 58% | 58% | 42% | JAX 1571 vs NE 1564, implied spread JAX −2.3 |
| Closing spread | JAX 57% | 57% | 43% | JAX -2.5 |
| The blend | JAX 60% | 60% | 40% |
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The spot: Tight agreement
Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 24 seasons (2,312 games) favorites here won 69.2% against a 67.7% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
Jacksonville Jaguars over the Patriots: Elo 58%, market 57%. Tight agreement: go above both.
Details
- Rest: JAX 7 days, NE 7 days.
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Sunday.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.