Money is moving toward the Saints
From the archive. This item is no longer current; the numbers below are as they stood when it was written.
Raiders at Saints: the markets have moved 3 points toward NO since Sunday, now 63% for the home side. Elo has NO at 52%.
A move of this size in three days is unusual; most NFL lines drift a point or two all week. It usually means news, an injury report, a quarterback decision, or a large bet, that the market is pricing before it shows up anywhere else.
Elo does not see news, so its number for NO has not moved. That leaves Elo and the market more than ten points apart, the spot where, over 27 seasons, the market was right and Elo's side won about half the time.
The System weights the market three to one over Elo, so it follows a move like this most of the way. If you have a pick on this game, the question is whether you know why the money moved.
| Polymarket (NO) | 60% → 63% |
| Kalshi (NO) | 63% → 63% |
| Sportsbooks (NO) | 61% → 61% |
| Elo (NO) | 52% |
| Spread | NO -3 |
| Total | 44 |
| Kickoff | Sunday 4:25 PM ET |
Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.