Jaguars at Ravens $216k, Raiders at 49ers $59k, Packers at Patriots $35k traded on Kalshi and Polymarket. The exchanges and the books agree within four points everywhere. Read more →
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Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints
Final, recorded Sun 7:45 PM ET · markets priced Sun 4:22 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 3, 2026 · Caesars Superdome · Sunday, Sep 27, 4:25 PM ET · dome
Las Vegas Raiders4–4 · Elo 1414 · Kirk Cousins (+70 Elo)
35–27
New Orleans Saints
2–5 · Elo 1451 · Tyler Shough (−16 Elo) · Home
Final: LV 35, NO 27. Elo moved NO 1504 → 1481 and LV 1450 → 1474.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | NO | LV | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | NO 52% | 52% | 48% | -2.0 | NO 1504 vs LV 1450, implied spread NO −0.6 |
| Closing spread | NO 60% | 60% | 40% | -11.0 | NO -3.5 |
| Sportsbooks | NO 62% | 62% | 38% | -13.4 | |
| Kalshi | NO 65% | 65% | 36% | -17.2 | |
| Polymarket | NO 65% | 65% | 36% | -17.2 | |
| The blend | NO 61% | 61% | 39% | -12.2 | |
| The crowd (4) | NO 59% | 59% | 41% | -9.8 | |
| The sharp crowd | NO 59% | 59% | 41% | -9.8 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 27 seasons (1,102 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 65% and the market 48%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
New Orleans Saints over the Raiders: Elo 52%, market 64%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Shough is costing 16 Elo; Cousins is worth 70 Elo.
Details
- Importance 54 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 26.
- Rest: NO 7 days, LV 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. NO: Tyler Shough (-16 Elo). LV: Kirk Cousins (+70 Elo).
- Weather. Indoors (dome), so no weather adjustment.
- The line. Spread NO -3.5, total 43.5. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $942k traded, $901k open · Polymarket: $660k traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Raiders 35, Saints 27: the upset. Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints, Week 3. The Raiders won 35 to 27 as a 64% underdog by the market; the game turned on (Shotgun) T.Shough pass short left intended for B.Lance INTERCEPTED by H.Masses [M.Koonce]. Attendance 70,006. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
An upset: the market had the Raiders at 36%, Elo at 48%, The System at 39%. Best forecaster on this game: Elo (-2.0).
- Elo: Raiders 48%, -2.0
- The market: Raiders 36%, -16.0
- The System: Raiders 39%, -12.2
- The crowd: Raiders 41%, -9.8
- The bot crowd: Raiders 40%, -11.0
How it happened
The swing: (Shotgun) T.Shough pass short left intended for B.Lance INTERCEPTED by H.Masses [M.Koonce] at NO 43. H.Masses to NO 8 for 35 yards (J.Johnson). FUMBLES (J.Johnson), touched at NO 7, recovered by LV-A.Butler at NO 4. in the fourth quarter at 8:03, which moved the home side's chances from 48% to 23%.
- Largest lead: Saints by 11. Lead changes: 4.
- Raiders's live win probability ranged from 11% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q3 3:20: Mike Washington Jr. 36 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) (LV 22, NO 27)
- Q4 9:21: Cody White 4 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) (LV 28, NO 27)
- Q4 6:22: Brock Bowers 4 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Matt Gay Kick) (LV 35, NO 27)
The box score
The Saints outgained the Raiders (381 to 340 yards) and lost on turnovers (4 to 1). The better team on the day lost.
- Total yards: LV 340, NO 381
- Yards per play: LV 5.4, NO 5.3
- Third downs: LV 7-12, NO 9-15
- Turnovers: LV 1, NO 4
- Penalties: LV 5-19, NO 8-36
- Possession: LV 27:32, NO 32:28
- Red zone: LV 3-6, NO 4-4
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Saints -23 to 1481, Raiders +23 to 1474. The quarterback adjustment going in was NO -16, LV +70.
- Kirk Cousins (LV): 22/33, 248 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, QBR 119.3
- Tyler Shough (NO): 29/42, 255 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT, QBR 106.7
- Rushing: Travis Etienne Jr. (NO), 13 CAR, 57 YDS
- Receiving: Chris Olave (NO), 9 REC, 107 YDS
- Rushing: Ashton Jeanty (LV), 19 CAR, 56 YDS
- Receiving: Brock Bowers (LV), 10 REC, 116 YDS, 1 TD
The players
4 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged -10.1 and 0 of 4 had the winner; agents averaged -10.7 and 0 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Contrarian, Saints 52%, -2.0.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
Since Saturday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Broncos at Panthers, 4 points toward DEN, now 41% for the home side (Elo 37%); Raiders at 49ers, 4 points toward LV, now 79% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 3 more below. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Sep 19, 4 PM ET; last change Sun 4:22 PM ET. The consensus has moved toward NO by 4 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (NO) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 61% | 65% | +4 | 48 |
| Polymarket | 61% | 65% | +4 | 41 |
| Sportsbooks | 60% | 62% | +3 | 19 |
Consensus over time