Playoff oddsTuesday, Sep 22, 8:00 AM ET
Playoff odds movers: Bengals up 26, Bears down 53
From the archive. This item is no longer current; the numbers below are as they stood when it was written.
Since 2026-09-19: Cincinnati Bengals now 81% to make the playoffs; Chicago Bears 14%. From 3,000 simulated seasons.
The simulation plays out the remaining schedule three thousand times on Elo's numbers, settles ties with the NFL's tiebreakers, and counts how often each team gets in. Odds move for two reasons: a team's own results, and results elsewhere that change the tiebreak picture. Early in the season most teams sit between 20% and 80%; the picture sharpens fast after week 10.
| Cincinnati Bengals ↑ | 54% → 81% |
| New Orleans Saints ↑ | 31% → 52% |
| Las Vegas Raiders ↑ | 33% → 53% |
| Carolina Panthers ↑ | 19% → 38% |
| New England Patriots ↑ | 50% → 69% |
| Chicago Bears ↓ | 67% → 14% |
| New York Giants ↓ | 34% → 6% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers ↓ | 38% → 15% |
| Baltimore Ravens ↓ | 81% → 57% |
| Houston Texans ↓ | 59% → 39% |
Related
Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.