Playoff oddsSunday, Sep 20, 8:00 AM ET
Playoff odds movers: Bengals up 28, Texans down 24
From the archive. This item is no longer current; the numbers below are as they stood when it was written.
Since 2026-09-19: Cincinnati Bengals now 83% to make the playoffs; Houston Texans 35%. From 3,000 simulated seasons.
The simulation plays out the remaining schedule three thousand times on Elo's numbers, settles ties with the NFL's tiebreakers, and counts how often each team gets in. Odds move for two reasons: a team's own results, and results elsewhere that change the tiebreak picture. Early in the season most teams sit between 20% and 80%; the picture sharpens fast after week 10.
| Cincinnati Bengals ↑ | 54% → 83% |
| Carolina Panthers ↑ | 19% → 37% |
| New Orleans Saints ↑ | 31% → 47% |
| New England Patriots ↑ | 50% → 66% |
| Minnesota Vikings ↑ | 84% → 93% |
| Houston Texans ↓ | 59% → 35% |
| Chicago Bears ↓ | 67% → 47% |
| Baltimore Ravens ↓ | 81% → 61% |
| Atlanta Falcons ↓ | 22% → 4% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers ↓ | 53% → 40% |
Related
Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.