RestMonday, Sep 21, 5:42 AM ET
Rest this week: 3 teams off a bye, 1 on short rest
Giants at Rams: Rams off a bye. Falcons at Packers: Packers on 4 days' rest; Falcons on 4 days' rest. Chargers at Bills: Bills off a bye. Jets at Lions: Lions off a bye.
Elo gives a team off a bye 25 rating points, about 2.5 points of win probability; over 27 seasons it is about right (home teams off a bye won 57.7% against 60.3% forecast, away teams 46.3% against 44.7%). Short rest is the Thursday effect: over 267 Thursday games since 1999, home teams won 56% against a 56% forecast, so nothing to adjust for.
| NYG at LAR | Rams off a bye |
| ATL at GB | Packers on 4 days' rest |
| ATL at GB | Falcons on 4 days' rest |
| LAC at BUF | Bills off a bye |
| NYJ at DET | Lions off a bye |
Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.