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The game that matters most this week: Bengals at Texans

Importance 64 of 100, the biggest swing in the league's playoff picture on the schedule. Elo has HOU at 62%.

Importance is measured by simulation: play the season out three thousand times with the home team winning, three thousand with the away team winning, and add up how far every team's playoff odds move between the two. A game between two contenders in the same division scores highest; a game between two eliminated teams scores near zero.

Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.