Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
← Back to Week 2 picks · Back to Week 2 predictions
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans
Final, recorded Sun 4:18 PM ET · markets priced Sun 12:53 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 2, 2026 · Reliant Stadium · Sunday, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET · closed
Cincinnati Bengals5–2 · Elo 1568 · Joe Burrow (+17 Elo)
20–6
Houston Texans
2–5 · Elo 1498 · C.J. Stroud · Home
Final: CIN 20, HOU 6. Elo moved HOU 1556 → 1521 and CIN 1505 → 1540.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | HOU | CIN | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | HOU 62% | 62% | 38% | -13.4 | HOU 1556 vs CIN 1505, implied spread HOU −3.3 |
| Closing spread | HOU 59% | 59% | 41% | -9.8 | HOU -3 |
| Sportsbooks | HOU 58% | 58% | 42% | -8.6 | |
| Kalshi | HOU 57% | 57% | 43% | -7.5 | |
| Polymarket | HOU 57% | 57% | 43% | -7.5 | |
| The blend | HOU 59% | 59% | 41% | -9.8 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Everything else
Moderate favorites where the models roughly agree. No edge found either way in the replays. The blend is as good as anything.
Houston Texans over the Bengals: Elo 62%, market 58%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Burrow is worth 17 Elo.
Details
- Importance 64 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 43.
- Rest: HOU 7 days, CIN 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. HOU: C.J. Stroud (+1 Elo). CIN: Joe Burrow (+17 Elo).
- Weather. Indoors (roof closed), so no weather adjustment.
- The line. Spread HOU -2.5, total 45.5. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $699k traded, $668k open · Polymarket: $1.6M traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Bengals 20, Texans 6. Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans, Week 2. The Bengals won 20 to 6; the game turned on C.Brown right guard to CIN 23 for 7 yards (J.Hansen).. Attendance 70,747. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
A close call on paper: the market had the Bengals at 42%, Elo at 38%, The System at 41%. Best forecaster on this game: The market (-8.6).
- Elo: Bengals 38%, -13.4
- The market: Bengals 42%, -8.6
- The System: Bengals 41%, -9.8
- The bot crowd: Bengals 42%, -8.6
How it happened
The swing: C.Brown right guard to CIN 23 for 7 yards (J.Hansen). in the second quarter at 13:20, which moved the home side's chances from 69% to 54%.
- Largest lead: Bengals by 14. Lead changes: 0.
- Bengals's live win probability ranged from 31% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q3 3:03: Ja'Marr Chase 18 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick) (CIN 17, HOU 3)
- Q3 0:35: Ka'imi Fairbairn 45 Yd Field Goal (CIN 17, HOU 6)
- Q4 12:16: Evan McPherson 57 Yd Field Goal (CIN 20, HOU 6)
The box score
The Texans outgained the Bengals, 374 to 267; the difference was elsewhere.
- Total yards: CIN 267, HOU 374
- Yards per play: CIN 4.5, HOU 4.8
- Third downs: CIN 5-15, HOU 5-17
- Turnovers: CIN 0, HOU 0
- Penalties: CIN 12-78, HOU 9-83
- Possession: CIN 30:49, HOU 29:11
- Red zone: CIN 1-1, HOU 0-4
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Texans -35 to 1521, Bengals +35 to 1540. The quarterback adjustment going in was HOU +1, CIN +17.
- Joe Burrow (CIN): 20/31, 207 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, QBR 105.2
- C.J. Stroud (HOU): 30/55, 353 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, QBR 74.3
- Rushing: C.J. Stroud (HOU), 3 CAR, 29 YDS
- Receiving: Dalton Schultz (HOU), 12 REC, 140 YDS
- Rushing: Chase Brown (CIN), 20 CAR, 80 YDS
- Receiving: Tee Higgins (CIN), 5 REC, 95 YDS
The players
2 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged -16.8 and 0 of 2 had the winner; agents averaged -9.1 and 0 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Fader, Texans 54%, -4.2.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Since 2026-10-13: Chicago Bears now 75% to make the playoffs; Atlanta Falcons 16%. From 3,000 simulated seasons. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Fri, Sep 18, 12 AM ET; last change Sun 12:28 PM ET. No movement in the consensus yet. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (HOU) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sportsbooks | 57% | 58% | +1 | 5 |
| Polymarket | 57% | 57% | — | 2 |
| Kalshi | 59% | 57% | -1 | 1 |
Consensus over time