Week 6: The System -14.4, the closing line -8.3, Elo -5.0
From the archive. This item is no longer current; the numbers below are as they stood when it was written.
baba led the players with -31.5. Every forecaster scored as a player on its closing numbers. The market beat The System this week.
Scoring is the game's own: 25 minus the square of the miss over 100, per game. A forecaster that says 70% and is right earns 16; wrong, it loses 24. Over a 16-game week the spread between the best and worst forecaster is usually 20 to 40 points, and it is mostly variance; the season total is what separates them.
Over 27 replayed seasons the closing line averaged 997 points a season, The System 1,011, Elo 892. One week says little; the season scoreboard on the leaderboard is the running answer.
| The crowd | +0.0 on 0 |
| The sharp crowd | +0.0 on 0 |
| Maybe (Kalm) | -3.6 on 14 |
| Elo (the model) | -5.0 on 14 |
| Pure Elo (baba) | -5.0 on 14 |
| Closing spread | -8.3 on 14 |
| Cautious (baba) | -9.6 on 14 |
| The blend | -11.9 on 14 |
| Sportsbooks | -12.5 on 14 |
| The System | -14.4 on 14 |
| The bot crowd | -14.7 on 14 |
| Pure market (baba) | -15.1 on 14 |
| Kalshi | -16.0 on 14 |
| Polymarket | -17.5 on 14 |
| Bold (baba) | -29.0 on 14 |
| Strong (baba) | -46.6 on 14 |
Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.