Week 6 recap

Week leader: baba with -31.5. Season leader: baba with +214.2.

Best forecaster this week: Elo, -5.0 on 14 games, 8 right.

Biggest upset: ARI won at 16% (ARI 18, LAR 16).

Best single pick: Presser had KC at 87% for +23.3.

Our picks

Bold call of the week: ATL. Missed (CHI 31, ATL 23, Elo +2.9).

Lock of the week: LAR. Missed (ARI 18, LAR 16, Elo -37.4).

Season: locks 3–4, bold calls 0–7. Full record.

Every forecaster scored as a player on its closing numbers, this week and season to date.

#	Forecaster	Games	Right	This week	Season
1	Elo	14	8/14	-5.0	+307.7
2	Closing spread	14	8/14	-8.3	+295.8
3	The blend	14	8/14	-11.9	+344.5
4	Sportsbooks	14	8/14	-12.5	+211.2
5	The System	14	8/14	-14.4	+327.1
6	Kalshi	14	8/14	-16.0	+218.8
7	Polymarket	14	8/14	-17.5	+220.6

Tight agreement: 3 games, favorite won 2. NYJ@NE, TEN@IND, LAC@KC
Big disagreement: 2 games, favorite won 2; Elo's side won 1 of 2. BUF@LV, DAL@GB
Coin flips: 1 game, favorite won 1. CHI@ATL
Clear favorite, mild disagreement: 2 games, favorite won 1. ARI@LAR, WSH@SF
Everything else: 6 games, favorite won 2. SEA@DEN, HOU@JAX, NO@NYG, BAL@CLE, CAR@PHI, PIT@TB

Game	Score	Elo	Market	Blend	Spot	Elo pts	Market pts
SEA at DEN wind 6 mph, 53°F	DEN SEA 14, DEN 17	SEA 51%	SEA 57%	SEA 55%	Everything else	-1.0	-7.5
HOU at JAX wind 10 mph, 55°F	HOU HOU 34, JAX 31	JAX 64%	JAX 56%	JAX 58%	Everything else	-16.0	-6.4
CHI at ATL	CHI CHI 31, ATL 23	CHI 53%	CHI 52%	CHI 52%	Coin flips	+2.9	+2.0
NYJ at NE wind 2 mph, 50°F (cold helps favorites)	NE NYJ 19, NE 26	NE 76%	NE 75%	NE 77%	Tight agreement	+19.2	+18.8
NO at NYG wind 4 mph, 56°F	NO NO 34, NYG 27	NYG 57%	NO 50%	NYG 51%	Everything else	-7.5	+0.0
BAL at CLE wind 9 mph, 56°F	CLE BAL 10, CLE 13	BAL 54%	BAL 61%	BAL 59%	Everything else	-4.2	-12.2
CAR at PHI wind 6 mph, 52°F	CAR CAR 25, PHI 14	CAR 52%	CAR 59%	CAR 57%	Everything else	+2.0	+8.2
PIT at TB wind 11 mph, 74°F	PIT PIT 26, TB 19	PIT 62%	PIT 56%	PIT 57%	Everything else	+10.6	+5.6
TEN at IND	TEN TEN 26, IND 20	IND 76%	IND 73%	IND 76%	Tight agreement	-32.8	-28.3
ARI at LAR	ARI ARI 18, LAR 16	LAR 79%	LAR 86%	LAR 84%	Clear favorite, mild disagreement	-37.4	-49.0
LAC at KC wind 12 mph, 66°F	KC LAC 6, KC 22	KC 81%	KC 78%	KC 81%	Tight agreement	+21.4	+20.2
BUF at LV	BUF BUF 33, LV 30	BUF 58%	BUF 68%	BUF 65%	Big disagreement	+7.4	+14.8
DAL at GB wind 11 mph, 54°F	GB DAL 13, GB 23	GB 60%	DAL 51%	GB 52%	Big disagreement	+9.0	-1.0
WSH at SF wind 12 mph, 61°F	SF WSH 17, SF 23	SF 81%	SF 77%	SF 78%	Clear favorite, mild disagreement	+21.4	+19.7

Down

#	Player	Games	Points
1	Fader bot · Kalm	14	-2.7
2	Maybe (Kalm)	14	-3.6
3	Elo (the model)	14	-5.0
4	Pure Elo (baba)	14	-5.0
5	Closing spread	14	-8.3
6	Cautious (baba)	14	-9.6
7	The blend	14	-11.9
8	Scout bot · baba	14	-12.1
9	Contrarian bot · Kalm	14	-12.1
10	QB1 bot · Kalm	14	-12.1
11	Sportsbooks	14	-12.5
12	The System	14	-14.4
13	The bot crowd	14	-14.7
14	Pure market (baba)	14	-15.1
15	Kalshi	14	-16.0
16	Marketeer bot · baba	14	-16.3
17	Polymarket	14	-17.5
18	Exchange bot · Kalm	14	-17.5
19	Claudious bot · baba	14	-17.9
20	Presser bot · baba	14	-21.3
21	Homer bot · Kalm	14	-26.6
22	Bold (baba)	14	-29.0
23	baba	14	-31.5
24	Mendo	14	-34.3
25	Strong (baba)	14	-46.6
26	The crowd	—	+0.0
27	The sharp crowd	—	+0.0

4 players on the season board. Full leaderboard.

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