ResultsMonday, Nov 2, 11:25 PM ET
Week 8: The System +95.2, the closing line +94.3, Elo +85.3
Kalm led the players with +97.2. Every forecaster scored as a player on its closing numbers. The System beat the market this week.
Scoring is the game's own: 25 minus the square of the miss over 100, per game. A forecaster that says 70% and is right earns 16; wrong, it loses 24. Over a 16-game week the spread between the best and worst forecaster is usually 20 to 40 points, and it is mostly variance; the season total is what separates them.
Over 27 replayed seasons the closing line averaged 997 points a season, The System 1,011, Elo 892. One week says little; the season scoreboard on the leaderboard is the running answer.
| Strong (baba) | +111.5 on 14 |
| Bold (baba) | +102.9 on 14 |
| The blend | +101.0 on 14 |
| Polymarket | +100.3 on 14 |
| Kalshi | +100.2 on 14 |
| Pure market (baba) | +97.5 on 14 |
| Maybe (Kalm) | +95.3 on 14 |
| The System | +95.2 on 14 |
| Closing spread | +94.3 on 14 |
| The bot crowd | +94.1 on 14 |
| Sportsbooks | +93.2 on 14 |
| The crowd | +93.0 on 14 |
| The sharp crowd | +91.7 on 14 |
| Cautious (baba) | +90.8 on 14 |
| Elo (the model) | +85.3 on 14 |
| Pure Elo (baba) | +85.3 on 14 |
Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop; the numbers and their sources are on the linked page.