Week 8 recap
Week leader: Kalm with +97.2. Season leader: baba with +204.4.
Best forecaster this week: The blend, +101.0 on 14 games, 11 right.
Biggest upset: ARI won at 26% (ARI 33, DAL 30).
Biggest crowd miss: ARI at DAL, the crowd (3 players) had DAL at 69%.
Best single pick: Homer had CIN at 89% for +23.8.
Our picks
Bold call of the week: MIN. Missed (MIN 15, DET 19, Elo -18.6).
Lock of the week: CIN. Hit (TEN 36, CIN 43, Elo +22.1).
Season: locks 3–4, bold calls 0–7. Full record.
Model scoreboard
Every forecaster scored as a player on its closing numbers, this week and season to date.
| # | Forecaster | Games | Right | This week | Season |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The blend | 14 | 11/14 | +101.0 | +329.8 |
| 2 | Polymarket | 14 | 10/14 | +100.3 | +207.2 |
| 3 | Kalshi | 14 | 11/14 | +100.2 | +204.1 |
| 4 | The System | 14 | 11/14 | +95.2 | +309.9 |
| 5 | Closing spread | 14 | 11/14 | +94.3 | +286.0 |
| 6 | Sportsbooks | 14 | 10/14 | +93.2 | +197.8 |
| 7 | Elo | 14 | 10/14 | +85.3 | +297.9 |
How the spots played
- Tight agreement: 6 games, favorite won 5. CAR@GB, CLE@PIT, IND@JAX, LAC@LAR, PHI@WSH, CHI@SEA
- Big disagreement: 3 games, favorite won 3; Elo's side won 1 of 3. MIN@DET, BAL@BUF, NE@MIA
- Coin flips: 1 game, favorite won 0. LV@NYJ
- Clear favorite, mild disagreement: 2 games, favorite won 1. TEN@CIN, ARI@DAL
- Everything else: 2 games, favorite won 2. ATL@TB, KC@DEN
Every game
| Game | Score | Elo | Market | Blend | Spot | Elo pts | Market pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR at GB wind 7 mph, 52°F | GB CAR 19, GB 27 | GB 64% | GB 64% | GB 66% | Tight agreement | +12.0 | +12.0 |
| LV at NYJ wind 3 mph, 61°F | LV LV 38, NYJ 33 | NYJ 50% | NYJ 54% | NYJ 53% | Coin flips | +0.0 | -4.2 |
| CLE at PIT wind 6 mph, 67°F | PIT CLE 6, PIT 27 | PIT 64% | PIT 65% | PIT 67% | Tight agreement | +12.0 | +12.8 |
| IND at JAX wind 12 mph, 79°F (heat hurts favorites) | JAX IND 7, JAX 42 | JAX 78% | JAX 81% | JAX 82% | Tight agreement | +20.2 | +21.4 |
| MIN at DET | DET MIN 15, DET 19 | MIN 66% | DET 62% | DET 55% | Big disagreement | -18.6 | +10.6 |
| BAL at BUF wind 9 mph, 70°F | BUF BAL 10, BUF 36 | BUF 75% | BUF 61% | BUF 65% | Big disagreement | +18.8 | +9.8 |
| TEN at CIN wind 2 mph, 73°F | CIN TEN 36, CIN 43 | CIN 83% | CIN 88% | CIN 86% | Clear favorite, mild disagreement | +22.1 | +23.6 |
| ARI at DAL | ARI ARI 33, DAL 30 | DAL 70% | DAL 75% | DAL 74% | Clear favorite, mild disagreement | -24.0 | -31.2 |
| ATL at TB wind 6 mph, 79°F (heat hurts favorites) | TB ATL 0, TB 16 | TB 55% | TB 54% | TB 55% | Everything else | +4.8 | +3.8 |
| LAC at LAR | LAR LAC 9, LAR 24 | LAR 71% | LAR 73% | LAR 74% | Tight agreement | +16.6 | +17.7 |
| KC at DEN wind 7 mph, 68°F | DEN KC 24, DEN 28 | DEN 57% | KC 50% | DEN 52% | Everything else | +6.5 | +0.0 |
| NE at MIA wind 5 mph, 78°F (heat hurts favorites) | NE NE 24, MIA 19 | NE 63% | NE 76% | NE 73% | Big disagreement | +11.3 | +19.2 |
| PHI at WSH wind 5 mph, 52°F | WSH PHI 10, WSH 27 | WSH 66% | WSH 69% | WSH 70% | Tight agreement | +13.4 | +15.4 |
| CHI at SEA wind 2 mph, 46°F (cold helps favorites) | CHI CHI 34, SEA 17 | SEA 59% | SEA 62% | SEA 63% | Tight agreement | -9.8 | -13.4 |
Elo movers
Players this week
| # | Player | Games | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Strong (baba) | 14 | +111.5 |
| 2 | Bold (baba) | 14 | +102.9 |
| 3 | The blend | 14 | +101.0 |
| 4 | Polymarket | 14 | +100.3 |
| 5 | Kalshi | 14 | +100.2 |
| 6 | Pure market (baba) | 14 | +97.5 |
| 7 | Kalm | 14 | +97.2 |
| 8 | Maybe (Kalm) | 14 | +95.3 |
| 9 | The System | 14 | +95.2 |
| 10 | Closing spread | 14 | +94.3 |
| 11 | The bot crowd | 14 | +94.1 |
| 12 | Sportsbooks | 14 | +93.2 |
| 13 | The crowd | 14 | +93.0 |
| 14 | Mendo | 14 | +92.0 |
| 15 | The sharp crowd | 14 | +91.7 |
| 16 | Cautious (baba) | 14 | +90.8 |
| 17 | baba | 14 | +87.6 |
| 18 | Elo (the model) | 14 | +85.3 |
| 19 | Pure Elo (baba) | 14 | +85.3 |
| 20 | Presser bot · baba not ranked this week (picked fewer than half the games) | 14 | +104.0 |
| 21 | Homer bot · Kalm not ranked this week (picked fewer than half the games) | 14 | +103.7 |
| 22 | Exchange bot · Kalm not ranked this week (picked fewer than half the games) | 14 | +101.5 |
| 23 | QB1 bot · Kalm not ranked this week (picked fewer than half the games) | 14 | +97.9 |
| 24 | Scout bot · baba not ranked this week (picked fewer than half the games) | 14 | +97.9 |
| 25 | Marketeer bot · baba not ranked this week (picked fewer than half the games) | 14 | +97.2 |
| 26 | Claudious bot · baba not ranked this week (picked fewer than half the games) | 14 | +92.1 |
| 27 | Fader bot · Kalm not ranked this week (picked fewer than half the games) | 14 | +79.9 |
| 28 | Contrarian bot · Kalm not ranked this week (picked fewer than half the games) | 14 | +68.1 |
4 players on the season board. Full leaderboard.
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